Armchair GM Part 4 – Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have already made an increasingly successful trade. They’ll be in contention with Utah and Portland for the Northwest Division lead all season barring a season changing injury (to Billups or one of their bigs). They have a strong team and are best when they can cover their lack of depth up front by playing Carmelo Anthony or Renaldo Balkman at the 4. This works pretty well against many teams in today’s smaller, quicker NBA, but how will they compete with Houston, San Antonio or the Lakers up front in the playoffs? Even though they have come a long way already the Nuggets have to add depth up front to compete for the conference championship, and do so with few assets worth moving.
CURRENT ROSTER (contract years remaining including 2008-09)

1 – Chauncey Billups (4)**, Anthony Carter (1)

Billups is the point guard that this team needed. You’ll start to notice that every team that I see as a contender this year has a strong presence at the point, Billups is no exception. He has repeatedly been deep into the playoffs, has a championship and a finals MVP. He’s come into a situation in Denver that is less than ideal (again, the frontline), but he has been an outstanding motor for this team. He’s here to help this team win a playoff series.
Anthony Carter is a serviceable point guard and spent a fair portion of last season starting for this squad so he knows his teammates well.
Chucky Atkins is trying to get healthy again. When he is he’ll be an emergency backup and spot minute guy.
They’re fine at the 1

2 – JR Smith (4), Dahntay Jones (1), Sonny Weems (2)

JR Smith is still the headcase that Byron Scott refused to coach in New Orleans. On the right nights he can shoot the lights out, and on others he doesn’t belong on the floor.
Dahntay Jones is quality team player and has panned out pretty well for this squad. He fills the lane when the opposition doubles one of his more threatening teammates.
Sonny Weems has been injured or in the D-League all season. He’s an unknown commodity to me.
They need more experience at the 2

3 – Carmelo Anthony (4)*, Renaldo Balkman (2), Linas Kleiza (1)

Carmelo Anthony is one of the rising stars in this league. He can shoot, drive, post up and his defense is improving. His growth has continued each year he’s been in the league. This is something that I can’t say for enough players in the NBA anymore. He’s one of the best scorers in the league and is also one of the game’s best closers.
Renaldo Balkman may have been Isaiah Thomas’s best pick
Linas Kleiza is and outstanding shooter, but I don’t see much value in him beyond spreading the floor.
They’re fine at the 3

4 – Kenyon Martin (3)*, Chris Andersen (1)

This is the first healthy season for Kenyon Martin in recent memory. So far he’s missed only 6 games this season due to illness or suspension. His knees show no signs of the post micro-fracture surgery issues that have plagued him for years. He looks stronger than he ever did in New Jersey and the subtraction of Camby and addition of Billups has given him a real chance to shine as a scorer in an offense that spreads the ball more rather than keeping it in the backcourt for most possessions.
Andersen is the “energy” and “hustle” player of the group. Those terms used to be tacked on the guy that lacked coordination and tangible skills, but was fairly intelligent and loved basketball (insert your image of Mark Madsen here). Now it applies to the guy that gets on the floor for the minutes assigned to him, doesn’t complain and works his tail off because he loves to play the game. Shouldn’t everyone be a hustle player? Anderson is a nice backup and can fill time at the 5 as well.
They’re fine at the 4 barring injury

5 – Nene (4)*, Steven Hunter (2), Johan Petro (1)

Nene and Kenyon Martin currently form the most fragile frontcourt in the NBA right now. Nene is another comeback film in progress this year. He’s currently averaging about 15 and 8 with over a block and a steal per game. He has missed only one game this year. Since the Nuggets are lacking Camby, Nene has to stay healthy. Steven Hunter’s career appears to be over, Johan Petro is not ready to start and Chris Andersen can’t keep up with some of the bigger bodies in the league and all of the teams they’ll have to face in the western conference playoffs have a big that will require the services of Nene. His postup skills aren’t completely polished, but he’s a strong finisher and shoots free throws well.

They could use some help at the 5

* Final year is a player option
** Final year is a team option

THIS SEASON
The Nuggets have already made a couple of moves, one big (Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups) and one small (Chucky Atkins for Johan Petro). They could definitely use one more big body. Right now they’re relying on Renaldo Balkman and Linas Kleiza to take time at the 4. The biggest question is where to find that other big. I was a little surprised that they haven’t brought in an additional player this year. It’s a possibility that they’ll be making a D-League call-up, but I have a feeling that won’t be happening unless they lose one of their rotation bigs to injury. If they do plan to add a body they need to do it quickly to get him on the playoff roster. We’ll just have to wait and see.

OFFSEASON
This is not a championship team right now. The franchise definitely should feel that they’re closing in on the right team, but they’re probably another step or two away. Let’s take another quick look at the lineup.
A championship point guard, a seasoned small forward with a ton of ability (that hasn’t reached his ceiling) along with a power players that look great in the open floor and complement one another (Martin is a spot up guy and a cutter, Nene is the one that works in the post). As long as Billups maintains a firm defensive mindset and doesn’t fall into the Nugget trap, this team is very dangerous. What they lack right now is depth. It’s tough to get a lot of depth when 4 of your starting five are pulling in over $49 mill this year. They have some nice bargain players like Anthony Carter, Chris Andersen (both of whom they should re-sign) and Renaldo Balkman out there as backups. So what does the team need to add to what they have?
Re-signing Dahntay Jones and leaving him in the defensive 2 guard role would be a smart play. Making a 2-3 rotation out of Jones, JR Smith and Anthony (with Balkman as the mop-up guy) is pretty strong. They need a player focused on the defensive end in the backcourt and it would seem that Jones can develop into that player. There is the possibility to add a player via a sign and trade with Linas Kleiza, but I think it’s a better idea to just let Kleiza go and look into the players that will be available (even if it’s for a one year deal) for the mid-level this coming off-season. So can the Nugs find someone that can pick up the scoring load down low in a 2nd unit? Chris Andersen (This is assuming that they have the cash to re-sign Andersen) will get his cuts for dunks and easy baskets, but they really need to look into finding a big body with some scoring skills. Luckily, there will be bigs available for the price of the mid-level exception (or less). The most notable for the Nuggets to consider are Drew Gooden and Chris Wilcox. Each has merit for this squad.
Gooden can provide scoring off the bench, can work in the post and would be a nice complement to Andersen. Anderson is the lively defender that cuts the lane. Gooden is the finesse shooter that can post up as well.
Wilcox is a great big nasty pickman and will punish the opposing bigs in the post. His width will make him useful as both a 4 and a 5 and his defensive skills will make him and Andersen, or him and Nene formidable defensive duos. He can also use his strength and size to post up just about anyone, and his price tag may be smaller than the entire midlevel.
Re-signing Carter, Jones and Andersen and adding either of these 2 guys would solidify the Nuggets as a contender in the West, and probably for the championship. It will be a huge sacrifice for a team that made trades specifically to get under the luxury threshold in 2008-09. Would this franchise be willing to exceed the luxury tax next season to become a legitimate contender?