Monday, March 2, 2009

The Prep to Pro argument - 1995-1997

Honestly, in its infancy, taking a kid or two from HS per draft could be a good move for franchises. Few high schoolers were scouted, fewer still selected, and teams made conscionable decisions when they selected HS players. A few factors have to be considered (which later weren't):
Is the kid a sure thing or pretty darn close?
Is this a kid that is responsible enough to have millions of dollars in their checking account at age 18 or 19? (when I was 18 I would have been in a ridiculous amount of trouble if someone had given me more money than I knew how to spend)
Is the kid emotionally healthy enough to handle this kind of schedule? 82 games, non-stop travel and a difficult practice schedule can break a person down mentally. College is a great preparation step for players due to the classes, practice, games, tests and papers (this is of course assuming the Okafor-Roy student (first) athlete (second) model).

So, here's where we take off:

1995
#5 - Kevin Garnett - Garnett played in 80 games his first season, posted 10.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 blocks, and just over 1 steal per game. He did this in about 29 minutes per. Compare that to the 2nd best player in that draft and number 4 pick Rasheed Wallace at 10.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, and 0.6 steals per game. Wallace played in only 65 games at a rate of about 27.5 minutes per.
In other words, Garnett was ready to play ball, and he proved right away that he was mature enough to handle the money. He should have been drafted, and he was.

1996
#13 - Kobe Bryant - Kobe was groomed slowly in his first year, he was ramped up to more meaningful minutes by the end of the year and proved that he was ready to play. He would of course break out in his 2nd and 3rd years and become one of the best players in the NBA. My issue is of course, that from his demand to be traded to a top market (LA or NY) on draft night all the way to his infidelity he has had difficulty with immaturity. His superiority complex has consistently come been him and his teammates as well. I don't think that time in college would have helped him through his mental problems, but in all other aspects he was ready to play the NBA game.
#17 - Jermaine O'Neal - JO really didn't have his rookie season until 2000-01 with Indiana. He sat the bench for Portland, only playing more than 10 minutes a night in his fourth and final year with the Blazers. In his first year with the Pacers he played over 30 minutes a night and rewarded the club with 13 point and 10 rebound averages. By the 2004-05 season JO's knees were falling apart and it already appeared that his best years were behind him. We'll never really know how ready JO was, but in hindsight, a year in college may have put him in position to be drafted by a team that needed his services right out of the gate.

1997
#9 - Tracy McGrady - McGrady was probably ready to play more minutes in his first year, but his body immediately proved to be somewhat fragile. He averaged about 20 minutes per game and played in just 113 games in his first 2 seasons and compiled modest numbers. The Shaun Livingston rule directly applies here. McGrady's body wasn't mature enough to play the game, and would be until his 3rd season when he played 79 games, over 30 minutes per and seemed to be rounding into the scorer Toronto was expecting (15.4 ppg) when they drafted him. He would bolt for Orlando in free agency and vie for the scoring title for the next 5 years, winning it twice.

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