Honestly, in its infancy, taking a kid or two from HS per draft could be a good move for franchises. Few high schoolers were scouted, fewer still selected, and teams made conscionable decisions when they selected HS players. A few factors have to be considered (which later weren't):
Is the kid a sure thing or pretty darn close?
Is this a kid that is responsible enough to have millions of dollars in their checking account at age 18 or 19? (when I was 18 I would have been in a ridiculous amount of trouble if someone had given me more money than I knew how to spend)
Is the kid emotionally healthy enough to handle this kind of schedule? 82 games, non-stop travel and a difficult practice schedule can break a person down mentally. College is a great preparation step for players due to the classes, practice, games, tests and papers (this is of course assuming the Okafor-Roy student (first) athlete (second) model).
So, here's where we take off:
1995
#5 - Kevin Garnett - Garnett played in 80 games his first season, posted 10.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 blocks, and just over 1 steal per game. He did this in about 29 minutes per. Compare that to the 2nd best player in that draft and number 4 pick Rasheed Wallace at 10.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, and 0.6 steals per game. Wallace played in only 65 games at a rate of about 27.5 minutes per.
In other words, Garnett was ready to play ball, and he proved right away that he was mature enough to handle the money. He should have been drafted, and he was.
1996
#13 - Kobe Bryant - Kobe was groomed slowly in his first year, he was ramped up to more meaningful minutes by the end of the year and proved that he was ready to play. He would of course break out in his 2nd and 3rd years and become one of the best players in the NBA. My issue is of course, that from his demand to be traded to a top market (LA or NY) on draft night all the way to his infidelity he has had difficulty with immaturity. His superiority complex has consistently come been him and his teammates as well. I don't think that time in college would have helped him through his mental problems, but in all other aspects he was ready to play the NBA game.
#17 - Jermaine O'Neal - JO really didn't have his rookie season until 2000-01 with Indiana. He sat the bench for Portland, only playing more than 10 minutes a night in his fourth and final year with the Blazers. In his first year with the Pacers he played over 30 minutes a night and rewarded the club with 13 point and 10 rebound averages. By the 2004-05 season JO's knees were falling apart and it already appeared that his best years were behind him. We'll never really know how ready JO was, but in hindsight, a year in college may have put him in position to be drafted by a team that needed his services right out of the gate.
1997
#9 - Tracy McGrady - McGrady was probably ready to play more minutes in his first year, but his body immediately proved to be somewhat fragile. He averaged about 20 minutes per game and played in just 113 games in his first 2 seasons and compiled modest numbers. The Shaun Livingston rule directly applies here. McGrady's body wasn't mature enough to play the game, and would be until his 3rd season when he played 79 games, over 30 minutes per and seemed to be rounding into the scorer Toronto was expecting (15.4 ppg) when they drafted him. He would bolt for Orlando in free agency and vie for the scoring title for the next 5 years, winning it twice.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Armchair GM on hiatus
OK, so the Armchair GM project was a lot to take on. I thought that I could manage it, but then I got rolled up in a huge project at work. Between my working, sleeping and family hours, the Armchair GM series suffered. As a result, I'll do the Armchair GM on a request basis. If you want to see a team, you tell me and I'll make it so. I have a had a request for the Kings, and another for the Pacers. So I'll be all over those two as the prep to pro argument is being decided by me.
Armchair GM Part 4 – Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have already made an increasingly successful trade. They’ll be in contention with Utah and Portland for the Northwest Division lead all season barring a season changing injury (to Billups or one of their bigs). They have a strong team and are best when they can cover their lack of depth up front by playing Carmelo Anthony or Renaldo Balkman at the 4. This works pretty well against many teams in today’s smaller, quicker NBA, but how will they compete with Houston, San Antonio or the Lakers up front in the playoffs? Even though they have come a long way already the Nuggets have to add depth up front to compete for the conference championship, and do so with few assets worth moving.
CURRENT ROSTER (contract years remaining including 2008-09)
1 – Chauncey Billups (4)**, Anthony Carter (1)
Billups is the point guard that this team needed. You’ll start to notice that every team that I see as a contender this year has a strong presence at the point, Billups is no exception. He has repeatedly been deep into the playoffs, has a championship and a finals MVP. He’s come into a situation in Denver that is less than ideal (again, the frontline), but he has been an outstanding motor for this team. He’s here to help this team win a playoff series.
Anthony Carter is a serviceable point guard and spent a fair portion of last season starting for this squad so he knows his teammates well.
Chucky Atkins is trying to get healthy again. When he is he’ll be an emergency backup and spot minute guy.
They’re fine at the 1
2 – JR Smith (4), Dahntay Jones (1), Sonny Weems (2)
JR Smith is still the headcase that Byron Scott refused to coach in New Orleans. On the right nights he can shoot the lights out, and on others he doesn’t belong on the floor.
Dahntay Jones is quality team player and has panned out pretty well for this squad. He fills the lane when the opposition doubles one of his more threatening teammates.
Sonny Weems has been injured or in the D-League all season. He’s an unknown commodity to me.
They need more experience at the 2
3 – Carmelo Anthony (4)*, Renaldo Balkman (2), Linas Kleiza (1)
Carmelo Anthony is one of the rising stars in this league. He can shoot, drive, post up and his defense is improving. His growth has continued each year he’s been in the league. This is something that I can’t say for enough players in the NBA anymore. He’s one of the best scorers in the league and is also one of the game’s best closers.
Renaldo Balkman may have been Isaiah Thomas’s best pick
Linas Kleiza is and outstanding shooter, but I don’t see much value in him beyond spreading the floor.
They’re fine at the 3
4 – Kenyon Martin (3)*, Chris Andersen (1)
This is the first healthy season for Kenyon Martin in recent memory. So far he’s missed only 6 games this season due to illness or suspension. His knees show no signs of the post micro-fracture surgery issues that have plagued him for years. He looks stronger than he ever did in New Jersey and the subtraction of Camby and addition of Billups has given him a real chance to shine as a scorer in an offense that spreads the ball more rather than keeping it in the backcourt for most possessions.
Andersen is the “energy” and “hustle” player of the group. Those terms used to be tacked on the guy that lacked coordination and tangible skills, but was fairly intelligent and loved basketball (insert your image of Mark Madsen here). Now it applies to the guy that gets on the floor for the minutes assigned to him, doesn’t complain and works his tail off because he loves to play the game. Shouldn’t everyone be a hustle player? Anderson is a nice backup and can fill time at the 5 as well.
They’re fine at the 4 barring injury
5 – Nene (4)*, Steven Hunter (2), Johan Petro (1)
Nene and Kenyon Martin currently form the most fragile frontcourt in the NBA right now. Nene is another comeback film in progress this year. He’s currently averaging about 15 and 8 with over a block and a steal per game. He has missed only one game this year. Since the Nuggets are lacking Camby, Nene has to stay healthy. Steven Hunter’s career appears to be over, Johan Petro is not ready to start and Chris Andersen can’t keep up with some of the bigger bodies in the league and all of the teams they’ll have to face in the western conference playoffs have a big that will require the services of Nene. His postup skills aren’t completely polished, but he’s a strong finisher and shoots free throws well.
They could use some help at the 5
* Final year is a player option
** Final year is a team option
THIS SEASON
The Nuggets have already made a couple of moves, one big (Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups) and one small (Chucky Atkins for Johan Petro). They could definitely use one more big body. Right now they’re relying on Renaldo Balkman and Linas Kleiza to take time at the 4. The biggest question is where to find that other big. I was a little surprised that they haven’t brought in an additional player this year. It’s a possibility that they’ll be making a D-League call-up, but I have a feeling that won’t be happening unless they lose one of their rotation bigs to injury. If they do plan to add a body they need to do it quickly to get him on the playoff roster. We’ll just have to wait and see.
OFFSEASON
This is not a championship team right now. The franchise definitely should feel that they’re closing in on the right team, but they’re probably another step or two away. Let’s take another quick look at the lineup.
A championship point guard, a seasoned small forward with a ton of ability (that hasn’t reached his ceiling) along with a power players that look great in the open floor and complement one another (Martin is a spot up guy and a cutter, Nene is the one that works in the post). As long as Billups maintains a firm defensive mindset and doesn’t fall into the Nugget trap, this team is very dangerous. What they lack right now is depth. It’s tough to get a lot of depth when 4 of your starting five are pulling in over $49 mill this year. They have some nice bargain players like Anthony Carter, Chris Andersen (both of whom they should re-sign) and Renaldo Balkman out there as backups. So what does the team need to add to what they have?
Re-signing Dahntay Jones and leaving him in the defensive 2 guard role would be a smart play. Making a 2-3 rotation out of Jones, JR Smith and Anthony (with Balkman as the mop-up guy) is pretty strong. They need a player focused on the defensive end in the backcourt and it would seem that Jones can develop into that player. There is the possibility to add a player via a sign and trade with Linas Kleiza, but I think it’s a better idea to just let Kleiza go and look into the players that will be available (even if it’s for a one year deal) for the mid-level this coming off-season. So can the Nugs find someone that can pick up the scoring load down low in a 2nd unit? Chris Andersen (This is assuming that they have the cash to re-sign Andersen) will get his cuts for dunks and easy baskets, but they really need to look into finding a big body with some scoring skills. Luckily, there will be bigs available for the price of the mid-level exception (or less). The most notable for the Nuggets to consider are Drew Gooden and Chris Wilcox. Each has merit for this squad.
Gooden can provide scoring off the bench, can work in the post and would be a nice complement to Andersen. Anderson is the lively defender that cuts the lane. Gooden is the finesse shooter that can post up as well.
Wilcox is a great big nasty pickman and will punish the opposing bigs in the post. His width will make him useful as both a 4 and a 5 and his defensive skills will make him and Andersen, or him and Nene formidable defensive duos. He can also use his strength and size to post up just about anyone, and his price tag may be smaller than the entire midlevel.
Re-signing Carter, Jones and Andersen and adding either of these 2 guys would solidify the Nuggets as a contender in the West, and probably for the championship. It will be a huge sacrifice for a team that made trades specifically to get under the luxury threshold in 2008-09. Would this franchise be willing to exceed the luxury tax next season to become a legitimate contender?
The Nuggets have already made an increasingly successful trade. They’ll be in contention with Utah and Portland for the Northwest Division lead all season barring a season changing injury (to Billups or one of their bigs). They have a strong team and are best when they can cover their lack of depth up front by playing Carmelo Anthony or Renaldo Balkman at the 4. This works pretty well against many teams in today’s smaller, quicker NBA, but how will they compete with Houston, San Antonio or the Lakers up front in the playoffs? Even though they have come a long way already the Nuggets have to add depth up front to compete for the conference championship, and do so with few assets worth moving.
CURRENT ROSTER (contract years remaining including 2008-09)
1 – Chauncey Billups (4)**, Anthony Carter (1)
Billups is the point guard that this team needed. You’ll start to notice that every team that I see as a contender this year has a strong presence at the point, Billups is no exception. He has repeatedly been deep into the playoffs, has a championship and a finals MVP. He’s come into a situation in Denver that is less than ideal (again, the frontline), but he has been an outstanding motor for this team. He’s here to help this team win a playoff series.
Anthony Carter is a serviceable point guard and spent a fair portion of last season starting for this squad so he knows his teammates well.
Chucky Atkins is trying to get healthy again. When he is he’ll be an emergency backup and spot minute guy.
They’re fine at the 1
2 – JR Smith (4), Dahntay Jones (1), Sonny Weems (2)
JR Smith is still the headcase that Byron Scott refused to coach in New Orleans. On the right nights he can shoot the lights out, and on others he doesn’t belong on the floor.
Dahntay Jones is quality team player and has panned out pretty well for this squad. He fills the lane when the opposition doubles one of his more threatening teammates.
Sonny Weems has been injured or in the D-League all season. He’s an unknown commodity to me.
They need more experience at the 2
3 – Carmelo Anthony (4)*, Renaldo Balkman (2), Linas Kleiza (1)
Carmelo Anthony is one of the rising stars in this league. He can shoot, drive, post up and his defense is improving. His growth has continued each year he’s been in the league. This is something that I can’t say for enough players in the NBA anymore. He’s one of the best scorers in the league and is also one of the game’s best closers.
Renaldo Balkman may have been Isaiah Thomas’s best pick
Linas Kleiza is and outstanding shooter, but I don’t see much value in him beyond spreading the floor.
They’re fine at the 3
4 – Kenyon Martin (3)*, Chris Andersen (1)
This is the first healthy season for Kenyon Martin in recent memory. So far he’s missed only 6 games this season due to illness or suspension. His knees show no signs of the post micro-fracture surgery issues that have plagued him for years. He looks stronger than he ever did in New Jersey and the subtraction of Camby and addition of Billups has given him a real chance to shine as a scorer in an offense that spreads the ball more rather than keeping it in the backcourt for most possessions.
Andersen is the “energy” and “hustle” player of the group. Those terms used to be tacked on the guy that lacked coordination and tangible skills, but was fairly intelligent and loved basketball (insert your image of Mark Madsen here). Now it applies to the guy that gets on the floor for the minutes assigned to him, doesn’t complain and works his tail off because he loves to play the game. Shouldn’t everyone be a hustle player? Anderson is a nice backup and can fill time at the 5 as well.
They’re fine at the 4 barring injury
5 – Nene (4)*, Steven Hunter (2), Johan Petro (1)
Nene and Kenyon Martin currently form the most fragile frontcourt in the NBA right now. Nene is another comeback film in progress this year. He’s currently averaging about 15 and 8 with over a block and a steal per game. He has missed only one game this year. Since the Nuggets are lacking Camby, Nene has to stay healthy. Steven Hunter’s career appears to be over, Johan Petro is not ready to start and Chris Andersen can’t keep up with some of the bigger bodies in the league and all of the teams they’ll have to face in the western conference playoffs have a big that will require the services of Nene. His postup skills aren’t completely polished, but he’s a strong finisher and shoots free throws well.
They could use some help at the 5
* Final year is a player option
** Final year is a team option
THIS SEASON
The Nuggets have already made a couple of moves, one big (Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups) and one small (Chucky Atkins for Johan Petro). They could definitely use one more big body. Right now they’re relying on Renaldo Balkman and Linas Kleiza to take time at the 4. The biggest question is where to find that other big. I was a little surprised that they haven’t brought in an additional player this year. It’s a possibility that they’ll be making a D-League call-up, but I have a feeling that won’t be happening unless they lose one of their rotation bigs to injury. If they do plan to add a body they need to do it quickly to get him on the playoff roster. We’ll just have to wait and see.
OFFSEASON
This is not a championship team right now. The franchise definitely should feel that they’re closing in on the right team, but they’re probably another step or two away. Let’s take another quick look at the lineup.
A championship point guard, a seasoned small forward with a ton of ability (that hasn’t reached his ceiling) along with a power players that look great in the open floor and complement one another (Martin is a spot up guy and a cutter, Nene is the one that works in the post). As long as Billups maintains a firm defensive mindset and doesn’t fall into the Nugget trap, this team is very dangerous. What they lack right now is depth. It’s tough to get a lot of depth when 4 of your starting five are pulling in over $49 mill this year. They have some nice bargain players like Anthony Carter, Chris Andersen (both of whom they should re-sign) and Renaldo Balkman out there as backups. So what does the team need to add to what they have?
Re-signing Dahntay Jones and leaving him in the defensive 2 guard role would be a smart play. Making a 2-3 rotation out of Jones, JR Smith and Anthony (with Balkman as the mop-up guy) is pretty strong. They need a player focused on the defensive end in the backcourt and it would seem that Jones can develop into that player. There is the possibility to add a player via a sign and trade with Linas Kleiza, but I think it’s a better idea to just let Kleiza go and look into the players that will be available (even if it’s for a one year deal) for the mid-level this coming off-season. So can the Nugs find someone that can pick up the scoring load down low in a 2nd unit? Chris Andersen (This is assuming that they have the cash to re-sign Andersen) will get his cuts for dunks and easy baskets, but they really need to look into finding a big body with some scoring skills. Luckily, there will be bigs available for the price of the mid-level exception (or less). The most notable for the Nuggets to consider are Drew Gooden and Chris Wilcox. Each has merit for this squad.
Gooden can provide scoring off the bench, can work in the post and would be a nice complement to Andersen. Anderson is the lively defender that cuts the lane. Gooden is the finesse shooter that can post up as well.
Wilcox is a great big nasty pickman and will punish the opposing bigs in the post. His width will make him useful as both a 4 and a 5 and his defensive skills will make him and Andersen, or him and Nene formidable defensive duos. He can also use his strength and size to post up just about anyone, and his price tag may be smaller than the entire midlevel.
Re-signing Carter, Jones and Andersen and adding either of these 2 guys would solidify the Nuggets as a contender in the West, and probably for the championship. It will be a huge sacrifice for a team that made trades specifically to get under the luxury threshold in 2008-09. Would this franchise be willing to exceed the luxury tax next season to become a legitimate contender?
Friday, February 13, 2009
Should players make the jump from HS to the NBA
This has been an ongoing argument for a few years now, so in this column, I'll examine, year-by-year, the success of players that have jumped from high school straight to the NBA. I'm an advocate of an age limit. Let me explain a few reasons why:
The Shaun Livingston reason: Would Shaun Livingston's body have fallen apart in college? Probably (this would have been an outstanding reason to not draft him). But think about this; the best way for Livingston to have had his body ready for the NBA would have been strength and resistance training. Livingston is about 6'7" and tiny (he appears to weigh about 160 pounds). A college coach would have put him on a weight program and had him in the gym with the goal of getting bigger and stronger while maintaining his quickness. AND all this would have been going on while he was playing a much less taxing 30-35 game schedule.
The Gerald Green reason: Gerald Green is one of the strongest athletes I've seen on a basketball court. Gerald Green is also one of the most confused players I've seen on a basketball court. His team's game plan in HS was to let Gerald do whatever he wanted until he got tired. When Gerald got to the NBA he had no concept of how to play the game, how to run plays, how to do much of anything within a team concept really. Let's understand this: NBA coaches don't teach players how to play basketball. NBA coaches put theit players into positions where they will succeed, and ask them to leave their comfort zones a little bit at a time in order to improve them as players. With some better instruction at the college level, Gerald Green would most likely have been ready to play the NBA game at age 20, rather than still floundering after 4 years as a pro.
Here's the big one, and this is the one my friends frown when hearing:
The LeBron James reason: LeBron James was great in his rookie year, a force really, but just imagine if he had been in a group of his peers in a college or other development setting prior to his entrance into the NBA. We would have seen a LeBron that knew he was the best player on his team, knew that all the offense should start with him and knew that he didn't have to defer to his teammates unless he wanted to do so. He would have taken over his team in year one, and he would have been right to do so.
Having made those points I'll group the first few years together (1995-1997), and then start looking at the success of HS players one year at a time. You'll see why the NBA instituted the age limit rule, and why it's not only good for the league, but also for the kids that are coming out of HS.
The Shaun Livingston reason: Would Shaun Livingston's body have fallen apart in college? Probably (this would have been an outstanding reason to not draft him). But think about this; the best way for Livingston to have had his body ready for the NBA would have been strength and resistance training. Livingston is about 6'7" and tiny (he appears to weigh about 160 pounds). A college coach would have put him on a weight program and had him in the gym with the goal of getting bigger and stronger while maintaining his quickness. AND all this would have been going on while he was playing a much less taxing 30-35 game schedule.
The Gerald Green reason: Gerald Green is one of the strongest athletes I've seen on a basketball court. Gerald Green is also one of the most confused players I've seen on a basketball court. His team's game plan in HS was to let Gerald do whatever he wanted until he got tired. When Gerald got to the NBA he had no concept of how to play the game, how to run plays, how to do much of anything within a team concept really. Let's understand this: NBA coaches don't teach players how to play basketball. NBA coaches put theit players into positions where they will succeed, and ask them to leave their comfort zones a little bit at a time in order to improve them as players. With some better instruction at the college level, Gerald Green would most likely have been ready to play the NBA game at age 20, rather than still floundering after 4 years as a pro.
Here's the big one, and this is the one my friends frown when hearing:
The LeBron James reason: LeBron James was great in his rookie year, a force really, but just imagine if he had been in a group of his peers in a college or other development setting prior to his entrance into the NBA. We would have seen a LeBron that knew he was the best player on his team, knew that all the offense should start with him and knew that he didn't have to defer to his teammates unless he wanted to do so. He would have taken over his team in year one, and he would have been right to do so.
Having made those points I'll group the first few years together (1995-1997), and then start looking at the success of HS players one year at a time. You'll see why the NBA instituted the age limit rule, and why it's not only good for the league, but also for the kids that are coming out of HS.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Armchair GM Part 3 - Utah Jazz
The Jazz have been suffering through a number of injuries this season and are off to a sub-par start by their standards (currently 16-11, 8th in the western conference). Deron Williams was out for an extended period to start the season just when he should have been on the floor getting back into game shape (Olympian curse?). As a result of Williams’s injury he is just now resembling the player he was last year. Carlos Boozer has only played in 12 of the team’s 27 games. When Boozer returns from his quad injury the Jazz will finally be complete and we’ll be able to see the full capabilities of this team. At this point we’re only getting a feel for how good they are, but I believe that the best is yet to come from a team that has made strong playoff runs in each of the last 2 years, but needs to find the player or players that can get them over the hump and into championship contention this year.
CURRENT ROSTER (contract years remaining including 2008-09)
1 – Deron Williams (4), Ronnie Price (1), Brevin Knight (1)
Deron Williams has quickly become one of the best point guards in the game. He fits this team perfectly. He has 3 point range which helps to make it difficult to double Boozer in the post in addition to his shooting he can finish at the rim. The other aspect of Williams’s game is his playmaking. Not just passing, but true playmaking. Jerry Sloan’s system is filled with plays that push the lane open and his players have to learn to use cuts through the lane and expect the playmaker to find them at exactly the right time. Williams has his head up and uses impeccable timing to find his teammates as soon as they’re ready to shoot or finish a drive. He also has had the good fortune of working with a relatively consistent unit since he came into the league which has only made his timing that much more precise.
Ronnie Price is still working his way into the NBA game, but has been giving the Jazz solid minutes. He’s a quality player as a backup to Williams – who should be a 35 minute per game player – and stepped up in Williams’s absence to prove that he is an asset to this team.
Brevin Knight is a veteran playmaker that is good for about 15 minutes per night. He can still run the point efficiently and he’s a strong defender as long as he has some help defenders up front that will get him the freedom to gamble for some steals.
They’re fine at the 1
2 – Ronnie Brewer (2), Kyle Korver (3), Morris Almond (1)
Ronnie Brewer has spent the beginning of last season realizing that if he runs to the rim in this offense, someone will find him when he’s open. He gets some of the easiest buckets in the NBA and plays strong defense.
Kyle Korver is an outstanding shooter and has the intelligence to play decent defense and remember when to move the ball and when to take the shot. His place on this team was impacted greatly by the emergence of Ronnie Brewer, but Korver is a solid backup and can fill minutes at the 3 if needed as well.
Morris Almond is a backup that isn’t currently needed. In fact, I haven’t seen enough of him to tell you much about him.
They’re fine at the 2
3 – CJ Miles (4), Andrei Kirilenko (3), Matt Harpring (2)
CJ Miles has been the starter at the 3 lately. He’s an average player, but gives up the ball with ease, doesn’t step on any toes and covers his man pretty well on most occasions. Although he doesn’t collect many rebounds, he positions himself well and helps the bigs with his boxouts.
Andrei Kirilenko is still getting the majority of minutes at the 3 and has proven to be extremely valuable as a 6th man. He comes off the bench as a defensive cooler and has always looked at ease in Jerry Sloan’s offense. As a 3 Kirilenko doesn’t have to take the pounding that he had at the 4 (even though this move was a drag for fantasy owners…) and he should get back to playing closer to 75-80 games this year.
Matt Harpring is on his way to being 33 years old and is on pace to play the fewest minutes per game of his career. Harpring and his experience are a luxury to have coming off the bench for 10 minutes or so each game.
They’re fine at the 3
4 – Carlos Boozer (1)*, Paul Millsap (1)
At this point Carlos Boozer is a top 5 power forward in the NBA (since I know you’re wondering… Boozer, Duncan, Garnett, Bosh and Nowitzki). As a scorer he plays the post-up game and has range on his jumper out to about 20 feet. He’s also an excellent rebounder.
Millsap appears to be a Boozer in the making. He looked like a steal right out of the gate, but this year he’s showing that he’s more than just a solid backup. While filling the starting spot for Boozer Millsap is playing almost 35 minutes per night and averaging 17.8 points, 11.1 rebounds (with 4.3 of them offensive), 1.6 steals and 1 block per game while shooting 57%. Even though he’s averaging 4 fouls over that same span, he’s only fouled out of 2 of those contests and still gave his team quality minutes in each. He has posted a points/rebounds double double in all but one start (his first) and has scored 15 or more points 10 times. With this kind of production from Millsap the Jazz will have the opportunity to ease Boozer back into the rotation. When he does reclaim the starting 4 spot, the Jazz will begin playing a 3 man 4-5 rotation with Boozer playing some center. There’s talk of a big front line with Millsap at the 3, but I don’t think that the Jazz can put a front line that slow on the court for any reasonable amount of minutes. Look for Boozer to get the most work (to the tune of around 35 minutes/night) with Okur and Millsap splitting the difference (about 30 minutes each).
Kirilenko and Harpring can each put in some time at the 4 if needed as well.
They’re fine at the 4
5 – Mehmet Okur (1)*, Kosta Koufos (4), Jarron Collins (1), Kyrylo Fesenko (2)
Mehmet Okur’s ability to shoot the 3 is inherently important to the way that the Jazz play ball. Okur outside means a big defender has to be outside and that means two things: 1. The lane is freed up for the cutters from the perimeter
2. The offensive glass is open to the outstanding rebounders that the Jazz have at the 3 and 4 - counting Boozer, Millsap, Kirilenko and Harpring most heavily here.
Kosta Koufos looks a little shaky at this point, but is more than capable of playing mop up minutes and stealing minutes when one of the 3 frontline rotation guys is in foul trouble or out with injury.
Jarron Collins has experience and is a guy that most NBA teams would love to call their 3rd center.
Fesenko remains an unknown quantity.
They’re fine at the 5
* Player option for an additional season
THIS SEASON
Honestly, if I were Utah, I would be kicking myself for not getting an offer to Charlotte for Jason Richardson. They probably could have gotten Richardson for Harpring and his toughness (remember that Larry Brown is the coach) and Kyle Korver and his shooting ability. The Jazz would receive the piece that could complete this team. Richardson is a better than average defender at the 2 that can shoot from 3 and get to the rim at will. Charlotte would get two guys that should fit well with Larry Brown’s style that just happen to have contracts that expire in 2010. We’re not here to cry over spilled milk though. So I went looking for a similar player to Richardson that would be available… and found no one. The best option that I can come up with is trading the combination of Harpring and CJ Miles to those same Bobcats for Gerald Wallace. Wallace's defense has never been in question, and on a winning squad he may be less subject to the offensive slumps he sees so often in Charlotte because he would be spending more time going to the rim and less time shooting jumpers. Even if the offensive slumps do continue, there are enough weapons to make up for any lack of offense in Utah. Wallace isn’t the ideal addition the way Richardson would have been, but he would move right into the 3 slot vacated by Miles and make the best defensive combination on the wings in the NBA (Brewer and Wallace with Kirilenko coming off the bench). Wallace could also make Kirilenko and his huge contract expendable in the coming off-season. Wallace would be an improvement over the players that they’re trading, and if he could have any of his break-out offensive games during the playoffs, he could win those games for this team.
Charlotte would get a strong young player in Miles and a grizzled playoff-seasoned veteran in Harpring. The two players would bring some toughness and strong defense to Charlotte. Harpring’s contract is the larger of the two and expires in 2010; Miles expires in 2011 which is still one year before Wallace’s contract. This move would free up one roster spot for the Jazz. It’s a perfect opportunity to bring Dee Brown back. If you’ll remember the Jazz’s run to the conference finals in 2007 you’ll remember Dee Brown and the way he played (and probably his neck injury). He knows the offense, showed that he can come up big in the playoffs and can be signed for the minimum since the Wizards waived him.
OFFSEASON
There are two players with player options for the 2009-10 season. Unless Okur is unhappy I really can’t see him opting out of his contract in 2009. He shouldn’t get any more from another team than the Jazz will be paying him. Carlos Boozer recently announced that he will be opting out to (no huge shock) try to find more money out there. There will be suitors. I would expect Detroit, Memphis and Indiana to be some of them. At this point I just don’t think that keeping him is worth it to Utah.
The other free agents coming up are: Ronnie Price – He’s working out very well and there’s no reason not to make a deal with him over the summer.
Brevin Knight, Morris Almond and Jarron Collins will all expire.
The Jazz will more than likely be finishing this 2008-09 season with one of the top 8 records in the league, which means they will forfeit their first round pick to Minnesota (via Philadelphia) so no draft picks to discuss.
Paul Millsap will be a restricted free agent so the Jazz can just wait for another team to make an offer, but I would begin negotiations as soon as possible. The Jazz will come into 2009-10 about $12 million under the luxury tax which will leave room to sign both Price and Millsap. If Koufos and Fesenko have a chance to continue their development this year they’ll serve as fine backups to Okur and possibly to Millsap as well. If the Jazz need an additional body up front they can turn to Matt Harpring, or to his expiring contract. We all know how many teams are out there accumulating contracts that expire in 2010. They may be able to get a good deal on a player like Charlie Villanueva in a sign and trade with the Bucks. The Bucks are playing Villanueva, but he just doesn't look like he's part of their plan. The Bucks may be willing to let Villanueva drop off their roster for no compensation in the coming offseason, but Harpring is the kind of hustle vet that Scott Skiles would appreciate. Once the front court dilemma is solved I would retain Dee Brown to fill out the point guard slot. With Deron Williams good for so many minutes, a couple of developing points is a nice plan for the backups. If one of those points develops more rapidly it could open up the opportunity to develop an even more uptempo game with Williams at the 2 guard.
Is it time to move Andrei Kirilenko? If so there are a couple of destinations that make sense. I just don’t see any teams that have quite the right combination to make a trade for Kirilenko work to the Jazz’s satisfaction.
This leaves the Jazz staying young and quick and fielding a starting 5 of Williams, Brewer, Miles, Millsap and Okur with Price/Brown, Korver, Kirilenko, Harpring (or his traded replacement) and Fesenko/Koufos off the bench. With this lineup, Millsap won't be asked to replace Boozer's scoring. Millsap, Miles and Brewer will all be picking up the slack. We'll probably see Okur scoring at the highest rate of his career as well. Life after Carlos Boozer won't be as difficult as it would seem at first, not with the way the youth on this squad is developing.
CURRENT ROSTER (contract years remaining including 2008-09)
1 – Deron Williams (4), Ronnie Price (1), Brevin Knight (1)
Deron Williams has quickly become one of the best point guards in the game. He fits this team perfectly. He has 3 point range which helps to make it difficult to double Boozer in the post in addition to his shooting he can finish at the rim. The other aspect of Williams’s game is his playmaking. Not just passing, but true playmaking. Jerry Sloan’s system is filled with plays that push the lane open and his players have to learn to use cuts through the lane and expect the playmaker to find them at exactly the right time. Williams has his head up and uses impeccable timing to find his teammates as soon as they’re ready to shoot or finish a drive. He also has had the good fortune of working with a relatively consistent unit since he came into the league which has only made his timing that much more precise.
Ronnie Price is still working his way into the NBA game, but has been giving the Jazz solid minutes. He’s a quality player as a backup to Williams – who should be a 35 minute per game player – and stepped up in Williams’s absence to prove that he is an asset to this team.
Brevin Knight is a veteran playmaker that is good for about 15 minutes per night. He can still run the point efficiently and he’s a strong defender as long as he has some help defenders up front that will get him the freedom to gamble for some steals.
They’re fine at the 1
2 – Ronnie Brewer (2), Kyle Korver (3), Morris Almond (1)
Ronnie Brewer has spent the beginning of last season realizing that if he runs to the rim in this offense, someone will find him when he’s open. He gets some of the easiest buckets in the NBA and plays strong defense.
Kyle Korver is an outstanding shooter and has the intelligence to play decent defense and remember when to move the ball and when to take the shot. His place on this team was impacted greatly by the emergence of Ronnie Brewer, but Korver is a solid backup and can fill minutes at the 3 if needed as well.
Morris Almond is a backup that isn’t currently needed. In fact, I haven’t seen enough of him to tell you much about him.
They’re fine at the 2
3 – CJ Miles (4), Andrei Kirilenko (3), Matt Harpring (2)
CJ Miles has been the starter at the 3 lately. He’s an average player, but gives up the ball with ease, doesn’t step on any toes and covers his man pretty well on most occasions. Although he doesn’t collect many rebounds, he positions himself well and helps the bigs with his boxouts.
Andrei Kirilenko is still getting the majority of minutes at the 3 and has proven to be extremely valuable as a 6th man. He comes off the bench as a defensive cooler and has always looked at ease in Jerry Sloan’s offense. As a 3 Kirilenko doesn’t have to take the pounding that he had at the 4 (even though this move was a drag for fantasy owners…) and he should get back to playing closer to 75-80 games this year.
Matt Harpring is on his way to being 33 years old and is on pace to play the fewest minutes per game of his career. Harpring and his experience are a luxury to have coming off the bench for 10 minutes or so each game.
They’re fine at the 3
4 – Carlos Boozer (1)*, Paul Millsap (1)
At this point Carlos Boozer is a top 5 power forward in the NBA (since I know you’re wondering… Boozer, Duncan, Garnett, Bosh and Nowitzki). As a scorer he plays the post-up game and has range on his jumper out to about 20 feet. He’s also an excellent rebounder.
Millsap appears to be a Boozer in the making. He looked like a steal right out of the gate, but this year he’s showing that he’s more than just a solid backup. While filling the starting spot for Boozer Millsap is playing almost 35 minutes per night and averaging 17.8 points, 11.1 rebounds (with 4.3 of them offensive), 1.6 steals and 1 block per game while shooting 57%. Even though he’s averaging 4 fouls over that same span, he’s only fouled out of 2 of those contests and still gave his team quality minutes in each. He has posted a points/rebounds double double in all but one start (his first) and has scored 15 or more points 10 times. With this kind of production from Millsap the Jazz will have the opportunity to ease Boozer back into the rotation. When he does reclaim the starting 4 spot, the Jazz will begin playing a 3 man 4-5 rotation with Boozer playing some center. There’s talk of a big front line with Millsap at the 3, but I don’t think that the Jazz can put a front line that slow on the court for any reasonable amount of minutes. Look for Boozer to get the most work (to the tune of around 35 minutes/night) with Okur and Millsap splitting the difference (about 30 minutes each).
Kirilenko and Harpring can each put in some time at the 4 if needed as well.
They’re fine at the 4
5 – Mehmet Okur (1)*, Kosta Koufos (4), Jarron Collins (1), Kyrylo Fesenko (2)
Mehmet Okur’s ability to shoot the 3 is inherently important to the way that the Jazz play ball. Okur outside means a big defender has to be outside and that means two things: 1. The lane is freed up for the cutters from the perimeter
2. The offensive glass is open to the outstanding rebounders that the Jazz have at the 3 and 4 - counting Boozer, Millsap, Kirilenko and Harpring most heavily here.
Kosta Koufos looks a little shaky at this point, but is more than capable of playing mop up minutes and stealing minutes when one of the 3 frontline rotation guys is in foul trouble or out with injury.
Jarron Collins has experience and is a guy that most NBA teams would love to call their 3rd center.
Fesenko remains an unknown quantity.
They’re fine at the 5
* Player option for an additional season
THIS SEASON
Honestly, if I were Utah, I would be kicking myself for not getting an offer to Charlotte for Jason Richardson. They probably could have gotten Richardson for Harpring and his toughness (remember that Larry Brown is the coach) and Kyle Korver and his shooting ability. The Jazz would receive the piece that could complete this team. Richardson is a better than average defender at the 2 that can shoot from 3 and get to the rim at will. Charlotte would get two guys that should fit well with Larry Brown’s style that just happen to have contracts that expire in 2010. We’re not here to cry over spilled milk though. So I went looking for a similar player to Richardson that would be available… and found no one. The best option that I can come up with is trading the combination of Harpring and CJ Miles to those same Bobcats for Gerald Wallace. Wallace's defense has never been in question, and on a winning squad he may be less subject to the offensive slumps he sees so often in Charlotte because he would be spending more time going to the rim and less time shooting jumpers. Even if the offensive slumps do continue, there are enough weapons to make up for any lack of offense in Utah. Wallace isn’t the ideal addition the way Richardson would have been, but he would move right into the 3 slot vacated by Miles and make the best defensive combination on the wings in the NBA (Brewer and Wallace with Kirilenko coming off the bench). Wallace could also make Kirilenko and his huge contract expendable in the coming off-season. Wallace would be an improvement over the players that they’re trading, and if he could have any of his break-out offensive games during the playoffs, he could win those games for this team.
Charlotte would get a strong young player in Miles and a grizzled playoff-seasoned veteran in Harpring. The two players would bring some toughness and strong defense to Charlotte. Harpring’s contract is the larger of the two and expires in 2010; Miles expires in 2011 which is still one year before Wallace’s contract. This move would free up one roster spot for the Jazz. It’s a perfect opportunity to bring Dee Brown back. If you’ll remember the Jazz’s run to the conference finals in 2007 you’ll remember Dee Brown and the way he played (and probably his neck injury). He knows the offense, showed that he can come up big in the playoffs and can be signed for the minimum since the Wizards waived him.
OFFSEASON
There are two players with player options for the 2009-10 season. Unless Okur is unhappy I really can’t see him opting out of his contract in 2009. He shouldn’t get any more from another team than the Jazz will be paying him. Carlos Boozer recently announced that he will be opting out to (no huge shock) try to find more money out there. There will be suitors. I would expect Detroit, Memphis and Indiana to be some of them. At this point I just don’t think that keeping him is worth it to Utah.
The other free agents coming up are: Ronnie Price – He’s working out very well and there’s no reason not to make a deal with him over the summer.
Brevin Knight, Morris Almond and Jarron Collins will all expire.
The Jazz will more than likely be finishing this 2008-09 season with one of the top 8 records in the league, which means they will forfeit their first round pick to Minnesota (via Philadelphia) so no draft picks to discuss.
Paul Millsap will be a restricted free agent so the Jazz can just wait for another team to make an offer, but I would begin negotiations as soon as possible. The Jazz will come into 2009-10 about $12 million under the luxury tax which will leave room to sign both Price and Millsap. If Koufos and Fesenko have a chance to continue their development this year they’ll serve as fine backups to Okur and possibly to Millsap as well. If the Jazz need an additional body up front they can turn to Matt Harpring, or to his expiring contract. We all know how many teams are out there accumulating contracts that expire in 2010. They may be able to get a good deal on a player like Charlie Villanueva in a sign and trade with the Bucks. The Bucks are playing Villanueva, but he just doesn't look like he's part of their plan. The Bucks may be willing to let Villanueva drop off their roster for no compensation in the coming offseason, but Harpring is the kind of hustle vet that Scott Skiles would appreciate. Once the front court dilemma is solved I would retain Dee Brown to fill out the point guard slot. With Deron Williams good for so many minutes, a couple of developing points is a nice plan for the backups. If one of those points develops more rapidly it could open up the opportunity to develop an even more uptempo game with Williams at the 2 guard.
Is it time to move Andrei Kirilenko? If so there are a couple of destinations that make sense. I just don’t see any teams that have quite the right combination to make a trade for Kirilenko work to the Jazz’s satisfaction.
This leaves the Jazz staying young and quick and fielding a starting 5 of Williams, Brewer, Miles, Millsap and Okur with Price/Brown, Korver, Kirilenko, Harpring (or his traded replacement) and Fesenko/Koufos off the bench. With this lineup, Millsap won't be asked to replace Boozer's scoring. Millsap, Miles and Brewer will all be picking up the slack. We'll probably see Okur scoring at the highest rate of his career as well. Life after Carlos Boozer won't be as difficult as it would seem at first, not with the way the youth on this squad is developing.
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