Armchair GM Part 3 - Utah Jazz

The Jazz have been suffering through a number of injuries this season and are off to a sub-par start by their standards (currently 16-11, 8th in the western conference). Deron Williams was out for an extended period to start the season just when he should have been on the floor getting back into game shape (Olympian curse?). As a result of Williams’s injury he is just now resembling the player he was last year. Carlos Boozer has only played in 12 of the team’s 27 games. When Boozer returns from his quad injury the Jazz will finally be complete and we’ll be able to see the full capabilities of this team. At this point we’re only getting a feel for how good they are, but I believe that the best is yet to come from a team that has made strong playoff runs in each of the last 2 years, but needs to find the player or players that can get them over the hump and into championship contention this year.

CURRENT ROSTER (contract years remaining including 2008-09)

1 – Deron Williams (4), Ronnie Price (1), Brevin Knight (1)
Deron Williams has quickly become one of the best point guards in the game. He fits this team perfectly. He has 3 point range which helps to make it difficult to double Boozer in the post in addition to his shooting he can finish at the rim. The other aspect of Williams’s game is his playmaking. Not just passing, but true playmaking. Jerry Sloan’s system is filled with plays that push the lane open and his players have to learn to use cuts through the lane and expect the playmaker to find them at exactly the right time. Williams has his head up and uses impeccable timing to find his teammates as soon as they’re ready to shoot or finish a drive. He also has had the good fortune of working with a relatively consistent unit since he came into the league which has only made his timing that much more precise.
Ronnie Price is still working his way into the NBA game, but has been giving the Jazz solid minutes. He’s a quality player as a backup to Williams – who should be a 35 minute per game player – and stepped up in Williams’s absence to prove that he is an asset to this team.
Brevin Knight is a veteran playmaker that is good for about 15 minutes per night. He can still run the point efficiently and he’s a strong defender as long as he has some help defenders up front that will get him the freedom to gamble for some steals.

They’re fine at the 1

2 – Ronnie Brewer (2), Kyle Korver (3), Morris Almond (1)
Ronnie Brewer has spent the beginning of last season realizing that if he runs to the rim in this offense, someone will find him when he’s open. He gets some of the easiest buckets in the NBA and plays strong defense.
Kyle Korver is an outstanding shooter and has the intelligence to play decent defense and remember when to move the ball and when to take the shot. His place on this team was impacted greatly by the emergence of Ronnie Brewer, but Korver is a solid backup and can fill minutes at the 3 if needed as well.
Morris Almond is a backup that isn’t currently needed. In fact, I haven’t seen enough of him to tell you much about him.

They’re fine at the 2

3 – CJ Miles (4), Andrei Kirilenko (3), Matt Harpring (2)
CJ Miles has been the starter at the 3 lately. He’s an average player, but gives up the ball with ease, doesn’t step on any toes and covers his man pretty well on most occasions. Although he doesn’t collect many rebounds, he positions himself well and helps the bigs with his boxouts.
Andrei Kirilenko is still getting the majority of minutes at the 3 and has proven to be extremely valuable as a 6th man. He comes off the bench as a defensive cooler and has always looked at ease in Jerry Sloan’s offense. As a 3 Kirilenko doesn’t have to take the pounding that he had at the 4 (even though this move was a drag for fantasy owners…) and he should get back to playing closer to 75-80 games this year.
Matt Harpring is on his way to being 33 years old and is on pace to play the fewest minutes per game of his career. Harpring and his experience are a luxury to have coming off the bench for 10 minutes or so each game.

They’re fine at the 3

4 – Carlos Boozer (1)*, Paul Millsap (1)
At this point Carlos Boozer is a top 5 power forward in the NBA (since I know you’re wondering… Boozer, Duncan, Garnett, Bosh and Nowitzki). As a scorer he plays the post-up game and has range on his jumper out to about 20 feet. He’s also an excellent rebounder.
Millsap appears to be a Boozer in the making. He looked like a steal right out of the gate, but this year he’s showing that he’s more than just a solid backup. While filling the starting spot for Boozer Millsap is playing almost 35 minutes per night and averaging 17.8 points, 11.1 rebounds (with 4.3 of them offensive), 1.6 steals and 1 block per game while shooting 57%. Even though he’s averaging 4 fouls over that same span, he’s only fouled out of 2 of those contests and still gave his team quality minutes in each. He has posted a points/rebounds double double in all but one start (his first) and has scored 15 or more points 10 times. With this kind of production from Millsap the Jazz will have the opportunity to ease Boozer back into the rotation. When he does reclaim the starting 4 spot, the Jazz will begin playing a 3 man 4-5 rotation with Boozer playing some center. There’s talk of a big front line with Millsap at the 3, but I don’t think that the Jazz can put a front line that slow on the court for any reasonable amount of minutes. Look for Boozer to get the most work (to the tune of around 35 minutes/night) with Okur and Millsap splitting the difference (about 30 minutes each).
Kirilenko and Harpring can each put in some time at the 4 if needed as well.

They’re fine at the 4

5 – Mehmet Okur (1)*, Kosta Koufos (4), Jarron Collins (1), Kyrylo Fesenko (2)
Mehmet Okur’s ability to shoot the 3 is inherently important to the way that the Jazz play ball. Okur outside means a big defender has to be outside and that means two things: 1. The lane is freed up for the cutters from the perimeter
2. The offensive glass is open to the outstanding rebounders that the Jazz have at the 3 and 4 - counting Boozer, Millsap, Kirilenko and Harpring most heavily here.
Kosta Koufos looks a little shaky at this point, but is more than capable of playing mop up minutes and stealing minutes when one of the 3 frontline rotation guys is in foul trouble or out with injury.
Jarron Collins has experience and is a guy that most NBA teams would love to call their 3rd center.
Fesenko remains an unknown quantity.

They’re fine at the 5

* Player option for an additional season

THIS SEASON

Honestly, if I were Utah, I would be kicking myself for not getting an offer to Charlotte for Jason Richardson. They probably could have gotten Richardson for Harpring and his toughness (remember that Larry Brown is the coach) and Kyle Korver and his shooting ability. The Jazz would receive the piece that could complete this team. Richardson is a better than average defender at the 2 that can shoot from 3 and get to the rim at will. Charlotte would get two guys that should fit well with Larry Brown’s style that just happen to have contracts that expire in 2010. We’re not here to cry over spilled milk though. So I went looking for a similar player to Richardson that would be available… and found no one. The best option that I can come up with is trading the combination of Harpring and CJ Miles to those same Bobcats for Gerald Wallace. Wallace's defense has never been in question, and on a winning squad he may be less subject to the offensive slumps he sees so often in Charlotte because he would be spending more time going to the rim and less time shooting jumpers. Even if the offensive slumps do continue, there are enough weapons to make up for any lack of offense in Utah. Wallace isn’t the ideal addition the way Richardson would have been, but he would move right into the 3 slot vacated by Miles and make the best defensive combination on the wings in the NBA (Brewer and Wallace with Kirilenko coming off the bench). Wallace could also make Kirilenko and his huge contract expendable in the coming off-season. Wallace would be an improvement over the players that they’re trading, and if he could have any of his break-out offensive games during the playoffs, he could win those games for this team.
Charlotte would get a strong young player in Miles and a grizzled playoff-seasoned veteran in Harpring. The two players would bring some toughness and strong defense to Charlotte. Harpring’s contract is the larger of the two and expires in 2010; Miles expires in 2011 which is still one year before Wallace’s contract. This move would free up one roster spot for the Jazz. It’s a perfect opportunity to bring Dee Brown back. If you’ll remember the Jazz’s run to the conference finals in 2007 you’ll remember Dee Brown and the way he played (and probably his neck injury). He knows the offense, showed that he can come up big in the playoffs and can be signed for the minimum since the Wizards waived him.

OFFSEASON

There are two players with player options for the 2009-10 season. Unless Okur is unhappy I really can’t see him opting out of his contract in 2009. He shouldn’t get any more from another team than the Jazz will be paying him. Carlos Boozer recently announced that he will be opting out to (no huge shock) try to find more money out there. There will be suitors. I would expect Detroit, Memphis and Indiana to be some of them. At this point I just don’t think that keeping him is worth it to Utah.
The other free agents coming up are: Ronnie Price – He’s working out very well and there’s no reason not to make a deal with him over the summer.
Brevin Knight, Morris Almond and Jarron Collins will all expire.
The Jazz will more than likely be finishing this 2008-09 season with one of the top 8 records in the league, which means they will forfeit their first round pick to Minnesota (via Philadelphia) so no draft picks to discuss.
Paul Millsap will be a restricted free agent so the Jazz can just wait for another team to make an offer, but I would begin negotiations as soon as possible. The Jazz will come into 2009-10 about $12 million under the luxury tax which will leave room to sign both Price and Millsap. If Koufos and Fesenko have a chance to continue their development this year they’ll serve as fine backups to Okur and possibly to Millsap as well. If the Jazz need an additional body up front they can turn to Matt Harpring, or to his expiring contract. We all know how many teams are out there accumulating contracts that expire in 2010. They may be able to get a good deal on a player like Charlie Villanueva in a sign and trade with the Bucks. The Bucks are playing Villanueva, but he just doesn't look like he's part of their plan. The Bucks may be willing to let Villanueva drop off their roster for no compensation in the coming offseason, but Harpring is the kind of hustle vet that Scott Skiles would appreciate. Once the front court dilemma is solved I would retain Dee Brown to fill out the point guard slot. With Deron Williams good for so many minutes, a couple of developing points is a nice plan for the backups. If one of those points develops more rapidly it could open up the opportunity to develop an even more uptempo game with Williams at the 2 guard.
Is it time to move Andrei Kirilenko? If so there are a couple of destinations that make sense. I just don’t see any teams that have quite the right combination to make a trade for Kirilenko work to the Jazz’s satisfaction.
This leaves the Jazz staying young and quick and fielding a starting 5 of Williams, Brewer, Miles, Millsap and Okur with Price/Brown, Korver, Kirilenko, Harpring (or his traded replacement) and Fesenko/Koufos off the bench. With this lineup, Millsap won't be asked to replace Boozer's scoring. Millsap, Miles and Brewer will all be picking up the slack. We'll probably see Okur scoring at the highest rate of his career as well. Life after Carlos Boozer won't be as difficult as it would seem at first, not with the way the youth on this squad is developing.