The Jazz have been suffering through a number of injuries this season and are off to a sub-par start by their standards (currently 16-11, 8th in the western conference). Deron Williams was out for an extended period to start the season just when he should have been on the floor getting back into game shape (Olympian curse?). As a result of Williams’s injury he is just now resembling the player he was last year. Carlos Boozer has only played in 12 of the team’s 27 games. When Boozer returns from his quad injury the Jazz will finally be complete and we’ll be able to see the full capabilities of this team. At this point we’re only getting a feel for how good they are, but I believe that the best is yet to come from a team that has made strong playoff runs in each of the last 2 years, but needs to find the player or players that can get them over the hump and into championship contention this year.
CURRENT ROSTER (contract years remaining including 2008-09)
1 – Deron Williams (4), Ronnie Price (1), Brevin Knight (1)
Deron Williams has quickly become one of the best point guards in the game. He fits this team perfectly. He has 3 point range which helps to make it difficult to double Boozer in the post in addition to his shooting he can finish at the rim. The other aspect of Williams’s game is his playmaking. Not just passing, but true playmaking. Jerry Sloan’s system is filled with plays that push the lane open and his players have to learn to use cuts through the lane and expect the playmaker to find them at exactly the right time. Williams has his head up and uses impeccable timing to find his teammates as soon as they’re ready to shoot or finish a drive. He also has had the good fortune of working with a relatively consistent unit since he came into the league which has only made his timing that much more precise.
Ronnie Price is still working his way into the NBA game, but has been giving the Jazz solid minutes. He’s a quality player as a backup to Williams – who should be a 35 minute per game player – and stepped up in Williams’s absence to prove that he is an asset to this team.
Brevin Knight is a veteran playmaker that is good for about 15 minutes per night. He can still run the point efficiently and he’s a strong defender as long as he has some help defenders up front that will get him the freedom to gamble for some steals.
They’re fine at the 1
2 – Ronnie Brewer (2), Kyle Korver (3), Morris Almond (1)
Ronnie Brewer has spent the beginning of last season realizing that if he runs to the rim in this offense, someone will find him when he’s open. He gets some of the easiest buckets in the NBA and plays strong defense.
Kyle Korver is an outstanding shooter and has the intelligence to play decent defense and remember when to move the ball and when to take the shot. His place on this team was impacted greatly by the emergence of Ronnie Brewer, but Korver is a solid backup and can fill minutes at the 3 if needed as well.
Morris Almond is a backup that isn’t currently needed. In fact, I haven’t seen enough of him to tell you much about him.
They’re fine at the 2
3 – CJ Miles (4), Andrei Kirilenko (3), Matt Harpring (2)
CJ Miles has been the starter at the 3 lately. He’s an average player, but gives up the ball with ease, doesn’t step on any toes and covers his man pretty well on most occasions. Although he doesn’t collect many rebounds, he positions himself well and helps the bigs with his boxouts.
Andrei Kirilenko is still getting the majority of minutes at the 3 and has proven to be extremely valuable as a 6th man. He comes off the bench as a defensive cooler and has always looked at ease in Jerry Sloan’s offense. As a 3 Kirilenko doesn’t have to take the pounding that he had at the 4 (even though this move was a drag for fantasy owners…) and he should get back to playing closer to 75-80 games this year.
Matt Harpring is on his way to being 33 years old and is on pace to play the fewest minutes per game of his career. Harpring and his experience are a luxury to have coming off the bench for 10 minutes or so each game.
They’re fine at the 3
4 – Carlos Boozer (1)*, Paul Millsap (1)
At this point Carlos Boozer is a top 5 power forward in the NBA (since I know you’re wondering… Boozer, Duncan, Garnett, Bosh and Nowitzki). As a scorer he plays the post-up game and has range on his jumper out to about 20 feet. He’s also an excellent rebounder.
Millsap appears to be a Boozer in the making. He looked like a steal right out of the gate, but this year he’s showing that he’s more than just a solid backup. While filling the starting spot for Boozer Millsap is playing almost 35 minutes per night and averaging 17.8 points, 11.1 rebounds (with 4.3 of them offensive), 1.6 steals and 1 block per game while shooting 57%. Even though he’s averaging 4 fouls over that same span, he’s only fouled out of 2 of those contests and still gave his team quality minutes in each. He has posted a points/rebounds double double in all but one start (his first) and has scored 15 or more points 10 times. With this kind of production from Millsap the Jazz will have the opportunity to ease Boozer back into the rotation. When he does reclaim the starting 4 spot, the Jazz will begin playing a 3 man 4-5 rotation with Boozer playing some center. There’s talk of a big front line with Millsap at the 3, but I don’t think that the Jazz can put a front line that slow on the court for any reasonable amount of minutes. Look for Boozer to get the most work (to the tune of around 35 minutes/night) with Okur and Millsap splitting the difference (about 30 minutes each).
Kirilenko and Harpring can each put in some time at the 4 if needed as well.
They’re fine at the 4
5 – Mehmet Okur (1)*, Kosta Koufos (4), Jarron Collins (1), Kyrylo Fesenko (2)
Mehmet Okur’s ability to shoot the 3 is inherently important to the way that the Jazz play ball. Okur outside means a big defender has to be outside and that means two things: 1. The lane is freed up for the cutters from the perimeter
2. The offensive glass is open to the outstanding rebounders that the Jazz have at the 3 and 4 - counting Boozer, Millsap, Kirilenko and Harpring most heavily here.
Kosta Koufos looks a little shaky at this point, but is more than capable of playing mop up minutes and stealing minutes when one of the 3 frontline rotation guys is in foul trouble or out with injury.
Jarron Collins has experience and is a guy that most NBA teams would love to call their 3rd center.
Fesenko remains an unknown quantity.
They’re fine at the 5
* Player option for an additional season
THIS SEASON
Honestly, if I were Utah, I would be kicking myself for not getting an offer to Charlotte for Jason Richardson. They probably could have gotten Richardson for Harpring and his toughness (remember that Larry Brown is the coach) and Kyle Korver and his shooting ability. The Jazz would receive the piece that could complete this team. Richardson is a better than average defender at the 2 that can shoot from 3 and get to the rim at will. Charlotte would get two guys that should fit well with Larry Brown’s style that just happen to have contracts that expire in 2010. We’re not here to cry over spilled milk though. So I went looking for a similar player to Richardson that would be available… and found no one. The best option that I can come up with is trading the combination of Harpring and CJ Miles to those same Bobcats for Gerald Wallace. Wallace's defense has never been in question, and on a winning squad he may be less subject to the offensive slumps he sees so often in Charlotte because he would be spending more time going to the rim and less time shooting jumpers. Even if the offensive slumps do continue, there are enough weapons to make up for any lack of offense in Utah. Wallace isn’t the ideal addition the way Richardson would have been, but he would move right into the 3 slot vacated by Miles and make the best defensive combination on the wings in the NBA (Brewer and Wallace with Kirilenko coming off the bench). Wallace could also make Kirilenko and his huge contract expendable in the coming off-season. Wallace would be an improvement over the players that they’re trading, and if he could have any of his break-out offensive games during the playoffs, he could win those games for this team.
Charlotte would get a strong young player in Miles and a grizzled playoff-seasoned veteran in Harpring. The two players would bring some toughness and strong defense to Charlotte. Harpring’s contract is the larger of the two and expires in 2010; Miles expires in 2011 which is still one year before Wallace’s contract. This move would free up one roster spot for the Jazz. It’s a perfect opportunity to bring Dee Brown back. If you’ll remember the Jazz’s run to the conference finals in 2007 you’ll remember Dee Brown and the way he played (and probably his neck injury). He knows the offense, showed that he can come up big in the playoffs and can be signed for the minimum since the Wizards waived him.
OFFSEASON
There are two players with player options for the 2009-10 season. Unless Okur is unhappy I really can’t see him opting out of his contract in 2009. He shouldn’t get any more from another team than the Jazz will be paying him. Carlos Boozer recently announced that he will be opting out to (no huge shock) try to find more money out there. There will be suitors. I would expect Detroit, Memphis and Indiana to be some of them. At this point I just don’t think that keeping him is worth it to Utah.
The other free agents coming up are: Ronnie Price – He’s working out very well and there’s no reason not to make a deal with him over the summer.
Brevin Knight, Morris Almond and Jarron Collins will all expire.
The Jazz will more than likely be finishing this 2008-09 season with one of the top 8 records in the league, which means they will forfeit their first round pick to Minnesota (via Philadelphia) so no draft picks to discuss.
Paul Millsap will be a restricted free agent so the Jazz can just wait for another team to make an offer, but I would begin negotiations as soon as possible. The Jazz will come into 2009-10 about $12 million under the luxury tax which will leave room to sign both Price and Millsap. If Koufos and Fesenko have a chance to continue their development this year they’ll serve as fine backups to Okur and possibly to Millsap as well. If the Jazz need an additional body up front they can turn to Matt Harpring, or to his expiring contract. We all know how many teams are out there accumulating contracts that expire in 2010. They may be able to get a good deal on a player like Charlie Villanueva in a sign and trade with the Bucks. The Bucks are playing Villanueva, but he just doesn't look like he's part of their plan. The Bucks may be willing to let Villanueva drop off their roster for no compensation in the coming offseason, but Harpring is the kind of hustle vet that Scott Skiles would appreciate. Once the front court dilemma is solved I would retain Dee Brown to fill out the point guard slot. With Deron Williams good for so many minutes, a couple of developing points is a nice plan for the backups. If one of those points develops more rapidly it could open up the opportunity to develop an even more uptempo game with Williams at the 2 guard.
Is it time to move Andrei Kirilenko? If so there are a couple of destinations that make sense. I just don’t see any teams that have quite the right combination to make a trade for Kirilenko work to the Jazz’s satisfaction.
This leaves the Jazz staying young and quick and fielding a starting 5 of Williams, Brewer, Miles, Millsap and Okur with Price/Brown, Korver, Kirilenko, Harpring (or his traded replacement) and Fesenko/Koufos off the bench. With this lineup, Millsap won't be asked to replace Boozer's scoring. Millsap, Miles and Brewer will all be picking up the slack. We'll probably see Okur scoring at the highest rate of his career as well. Life after Carlos Boozer won't be as difficult as it would seem at first, not with the way the youth on this squad is developing.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Armchair GM part 2 - Portland Trailblazers
My first thought on this one is simply, don't mess with perfection. This Blazer team is outstanding. They're full of young talent at every position; they have great coaches and a huge chunk of expiring cash coming up just in time to re-sign a couple key guys. But this blog is all about improving the team, so let's take a good look at where the Blazers can step it up.
The Blazers current 2008-09 track is to make the playoffs (by the way, they're on pace for homecourt in the 1st round). I say, let's go one better with that goal and win at least a round in the playoffs. Winning a playoff series this season would make this team ridiculously dangerous next season. These kids need that taste of winning to be hungrier next year. It will also help them realize that staying together could drastically increase their chances for success. I'm going to try to figure out the piece that will help them win in the playoffs now.
Current Roster (contract years remaining including 2008-09)
1 - Steve Blake (2), Sergio Rodriguez (2), Jerryd Bayless (4)
There were a lot of critics when the Blazers signed Blake (again), but he's proving to everyone that a point guard that looks to distribute the ball and take shots only when he's open is a luxury. I love Blake's handle, being able to control the dribble the way that he can gets him anywhere on the floor and his head is always up so he often confuses the defenses of opposing teams. They just don't know when he's going to mark the play and where the ball may go. Once you get past Blake things get a little shakier.
Sergio Rodriguez is becoming more Blake-like this year. We used to see Rodriguez always going as fast as possible, with or without the ball, now he seems more in control and a better and more willing distributor. I still think that Rodriguez as a starter is one or two years away.
Jerryd Bayless is waiting for an injury to happen to show everyone what he can do. I worry for this offense if Bayless gets big minutes though, they've predicated everything they do on great ball movement from the point and Bayless hasn't ever seemed all that interested in moving the ball.
Brandon Roy is an option for limited minutes at the point as well.
They're fine at the 1
2 - Brandon Roy (2), Rudy Fernandez (4), Martell Webster (5)
How great is Kevin Pritchard in the draft? In a single draft he fleeces the Wolves for Brandon Roy, the Bulls for LaMarcus Aldridge and takes on Sergio Rodriguez from Phoenix since Phoenix was so averse to spending money on young talent (just wait for the Phoenix article). Then the next year he dials Phoenix again and gets Rudy Fernandez out of it. Magnificent work.
Roy is an All Star again, Fernandez is adapting his game to the NBA more rapidly than I thought he could (he's one of those international "veteran rookies") and Martell Webster would be in the rotation for most teams, but will have trouble getting time here when he's ready to come back from his foot injury.
They're fine at the 2
3 - Nicolas Batum (4), Travis Outlaw (2)
The team is starting rookie Nicolas Batum and reaping benefits from his defensive mindset already. He looks a little herky jerky on the offensive end at times, but he's learning on the fly. His international experience is a positive for this team and he can rest on his defensive laurels until his offense comes around.
Splitting minutes with Batum is Travis Outlaw. I've been an Outlaw fan for a while now. His maturation has taken a little longer than expected, but he's still only 24 and shows a ton of promise as a mid range shooter, scorer and defender. By the time his contract is up we'll know whether or not he's the real deal, or just a backup.
In addition to these two Martell Webster and Brandon Roy are options.
They're fine at the 3
4 - LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Channing Frye (1), Ike Diogu (1), Shavlik Randolph (1)
Again, how fantastic does the 2006 draft look for Portland? They traded Tyrus Thomas for LaMarcus Aldridge and Randy Foye for Brandon Roy. It's ridiculous. Aldridge is already legit as a scorer and defensively he can tangle with the better power forwards in the league. His inside scoring is strong enough and he's quick to take advantage of mismatches, size-wise or quickness-wise. He also has a jumper like Kevin Garnett's, which will be even more helpful as Greg Oden matures into a stronger option in the post.
Channing Frye is exactly where he should be, backing up a big forward with similar skills. I like Frye as a 3rd or 4th big depending on the opponent and the schedule situation.
Diogu has skills on the offensive end, but the guys in front of him are just too good. He'll expire at the end of the season and I do hope that he'll find a good home somewhere.
The team nabbed Randolph because well... because no one else did. I personally don't think that he's a pro player. It seems that Portland's coaches are under that impression as well.
They're fine at the 4
5 - Greg Oden (3), Joel Przybilla (3), Raef LaFrentz (1)
Greg Oden is much better than I thought he would be after 20 games. I thought he needed another year in college to get better defensive footwork (the key to avoiding fouls in the NBA), but I'm guessing that when he sat out a season after knee surgery and couldn't jump and run, a lot of his training was focused on that same defensive footwork. He already has nice timing for shotblocking, and has shown that he's smart enough to establish rebounding position early (in college you establish as the shot is in its downward arc, in the pros you need to establish once the shot goes up) and in general looks like a rookie with multiple years of college polish. He's occasionally a little prone to fouls, but that will improve.
For as terrible as Joel Przybilla looked in his first 2 years in the league, he's really stepped up his defensive game and made a place for himself on this team. LaFrentz will expire to the tune of about $13 million at the end of this season and will not play this year.
They're fine at the 5
THIS SEASON
The thing that I love about this team is that their starters all have great skills, are young and you have 2 guys that love to close games (when most teams have zero). Roy and Aldridge are quickly turning into legitimate closers, although Roy is much better at it. The backups are less polished (Rodriguez compared to Blake, Fernandez compared to Roy) or less athletic (Frye compared to Aldridge, Przybilla compared to Oden) versions of their starting counterparts. A number of these guys can play multiple positions, and the 1st and 2nd unit players are interchangeable in case of injury.
The only thing that the Blazers are lacking is a veteran that has won in the playoffs before (one that plays, LaFrentz doesn't count). The Blazers will be great this season (I pegged them to win 50 games), but their playoff lives may depend on adding the one veteran that can steady the ship on the court and help coach McMillan keep big game emotions in check. The Blazers should really have no issue acquiring such a player given that they have so much young talent, some of which is sitting on expiring contracts (so teams could take a 1/2 season test drive so to speak). If the trade bait is Ike Diogu and either Outlaw or Webster, the total to spend in trade is $6.5-$7 million. The more serious they get about adding a veteran, the more likely that they'll throw in Sergio Rodriguez and/or Raef LaFrentz's expiring money. Coming into the season my half baked idea was to offer up a package with Diogu, Webster and Rodriguez to Detroit for Chauncey Billups, it would have been a starting point to let Detroit know the Blazers were serious. Since Billups was traded, I've not really bothered to think more about it or develop a theory as to how Detroit may have countered. Beyond Billups, I think that the Blazers can look to this option:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2006~802~454~2015~1717&teams=22~18~6~6~22&te=&cash=
The Knicks get Jerry Stackhouse, a 2 guard with a contract that expires in 2010. They also move Jared Jeffries's contract (which expires in 2011, or one year too late).
Portland gets Josh Howard to solidify their perimeter defense and bring them a playoff seasoned vet. The only young asset they have to move is Outlaw, whom Batum and Webster make movable. They bring back Jared Jeffries, who they may be able to flip in the coming summer, but he's a nice player and could give them some great minutes if needed.
Dallas gets a huge chunk of expiring money, and a young capable 3. They also get to move the guy that has been bringing them so much bad press for a younger and much cheaper player that can slide right into the starting 3 slot.
It's a decent deal from all sides. Maybe Portland would be willing to just make the deal with Dallas, taking back Stackhouse and telling him to stay at home for the rest of the season. I think any deal that Portland does make is going to be a 3 team maneuver.
OFFSEASON
I expect another stellar draft for the Blazers to add to the ridiculous depth they already have. After the draft the Blazers should start negotiating extensions with Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge and possibly Sergio Rodriguez.
If LaFrentz is indeed traded, the only expiring players in 2009 are Channing Frye, Ike Diogu and Shavlik Randolph. Frye and Diogu are both restricted free agents so the Blazers can just sit back and wait for another team to make an offer and decide whether or not to match. I would re-sign Frye in a heartbeat. He's a perfect fit in Portland. I also like Diogu's skills and he would make a quality 5th big in Portland's rotation, but I'm not sure if that's the role he wants to play in and beyond his 4th year. Diogu and the Blazers may both be better served if Ike moves on.
The Blazers current 2008-09 track is to make the playoffs (by the way, they're on pace for homecourt in the 1st round). I say, let's go one better with that goal and win at least a round in the playoffs. Winning a playoff series this season would make this team ridiculously dangerous next season. These kids need that taste of winning to be hungrier next year. It will also help them realize that staying together could drastically increase their chances for success. I'm going to try to figure out the piece that will help them win in the playoffs now.
Current Roster (contract years remaining including 2008-09)
1 - Steve Blake (2), Sergio Rodriguez (2), Jerryd Bayless (4)
There were a lot of critics when the Blazers signed Blake (again), but he's proving to everyone that a point guard that looks to distribute the ball and take shots only when he's open is a luxury. I love Blake's handle, being able to control the dribble the way that he can gets him anywhere on the floor and his head is always up so he often confuses the defenses of opposing teams. They just don't know when he's going to mark the play and where the ball may go. Once you get past Blake things get a little shakier.
Sergio Rodriguez is becoming more Blake-like this year. We used to see Rodriguez always going as fast as possible, with or without the ball, now he seems more in control and a better and more willing distributor. I still think that Rodriguez as a starter is one or two years away.
Jerryd Bayless is waiting for an injury to happen to show everyone what he can do. I worry for this offense if Bayless gets big minutes though, they've predicated everything they do on great ball movement from the point and Bayless hasn't ever seemed all that interested in moving the ball.
Brandon Roy is an option for limited minutes at the point as well.
They're fine at the 1
2 - Brandon Roy (2), Rudy Fernandez (4), Martell Webster (5)
How great is Kevin Pritchard in the draft? In a single draft he fleeces the Wolves for Brandon Roy, the Bulls for LaMarcus Aldridge and takes on Sergio Rodriguez from Phoenix since Phoenix was so averse to spending money on young talent (just wait for the Phoenix article). Then the next year he dials Phoenix again and gets Rudy Fernandez out of it. Magnificent work.
Roy is an All Star again, Fernandez is adapting his game to the NBA more rapidly than I thought he could (he's one of those international "veteran rookies") and Martell Webster would be in the rotation for most teams, but will have trouble getting time here when he's ready to come back from his foot injury.
They're fine at the 2
3 - Nicolas Batum (4), Travis Outlaw (2)
The team is starting rookie Nicolas Batum and reaping benefits from his defensive mindset already. He looks a little herky jerky on the offensive end at times, but he's learning on the fly. His international experience is a positive for this team and he can rest on his defensive laurels until his offense comes around.
Splitting minutes with Batum is Travis Outlaw. I've been an Outlaw fan for a while now. His maturation has taken a little longer than expected, but he's still only 24 and shows a ton of promise as a mid range shooter, scorer and defender. By the time his contract is up we'll know whether or not he's the real deal, or just a backup.
In addition to these two Martell Webster and Brandon Roy are options.
They're fine at the 3
4 - LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Channing Frye (1), Ike Diogu (1), Shavlik Randolph (1)
Again, how fantastic does the 2006 draft look for Portland? They traded Tyrus Thomas for LaMarcus Aldridge and Randy Foye for Brandon Roy. It's ridiculous. Aldridge is already legit as a scorer and defensively he can tangle with the better power forwards in the league. His inside scoring is strong enough and he's quick to take advantage of mismatches, size-wise or quickness-wise. He also has a jumper like Kevin Garnett's, which will be even more helpful as Greg Oden matures into a stronger option in the post.
Channing Frye is exactly where he should be, backing up a big forward with similar skills. I like Frye as a 3rd or 4th big depending on the opponent and the schedule situation.
Diogu has skills on the offensive end, but the guys in front of him are just too good. He'll expire at the end of the season and I do hope that he'll find a good home somewhere.
The team nabbed Randolph because well... because no one else did. I personally don't think that he's a pro player. It seems that Portland's coaches are under that impression as well.
They're fine at the 4
5 - Greg Oden (3), Joel Przybilla (3), Raef LaFrentz (1)
Greg Oden is much better than I thought he would be after 20 games. I thought he needed another year in college to get better defensive footwork (the key to avoiding fouls in the NBA), but I'm guessing that when he sat out a season after knee surgery and couldn't jump and run, a lot of his training was focused on that same defensive footwork. He already has nice timing for shotblocking, and has shown that he's smart enough to establish rebounding position early (in college you establish as the shot is in its downward arc, in the pros you need to establish once the shot goes up) and in general looks like a rookie with multiple years of college polish. He's occasionally a little prone to fouls, but that will improve.
For as terrible as Joel Przybilla looked in his first 2 years in the league, he's really stepped up his defensive game and made a place for himself on this team. LaFrentz will expire to the tune of about $13 million at the end of this season and will not play this year.
They're fine at the 5
THIS SEASON
The thing that I love about this team is that their starters all have great skills, are young and you have 2 guys that love to close games (when most teams have zero). Roy and Aldridge are quickly turning into legitimate closers, although Roy is much better at it. The backups are less polished (Rodriguez compared to Blake, Fernandez compared to Roy) or less athletic (Frye compared to Aldridge, Przybilla compared to Oden) versions of their starting counterparts. A number of these guys can play multiple positions, and the 1st and 2nd unit players are interchangeable in case of injury.
The only thing that the Blazers are lacking is a veteran that has won in the playoffs before (one that plays, LaFrentz doesn't count). The Blazers will be great this season (I pegged them to win 50 games), but their playoff lives may depend on adding the one veteran that can steady the ship on the court and help coach McMillan keep big game emotions in check. The Blazers should really have no issue acquiring such a player given that they have so much young talent, some of which is sitting on expiring contracts (so teams could take a 1/2 season test drive so to speak). If the trade bait is Ike Diogu and either Outlaw or Webster, the total to spend in trade is $6.5-$7 million. The more serious they get about adding a veteran, the more likely that they'll throw in Sergio Rodriguez and/or Raef LaFrentz's expiring money. Coming into the season my half baked idea was to offer up a package with Diogu, Webster and Rodriguez to Detroit for Chauncey Billups, it would have been a starting point to let Detroit know the Blazers were serious. Since Billups was traded, I've not really bothered to think more about it or develop a theory as to how Detroit may have countered. Beyond Billups, I think that the Blazers can look to this option:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2006~802~454~2015~1717&teams=22~18~6~6~22&te=&cash=
The Knicks get Jerry Stackhouse, a 2 guard with a contract that expires in 2010. They also move Jared Jeffries's contract (which expires in 2011, or one year too late).
Portland gets Josh Howard to solidify their perimeter defense and bring them a playoff seasoned vet. The only young asset they have to move is Outlaw, whom Batum and Webster make movable. They bring back Jared Jeffries, who they may be able to flip in the coming summer, but he's a nice player and could give them some great minutes if needed.
Dallas gets a huge chunk of expiring money, and a young capable 3. They also get to move the guy that has been bringing them so much bad press for a younger and much cheaper player that can slide right into the starting 3 slot.
It's a decent deal from all sides. Maybe Portland would be willing to just make the deal with Dallas, taking back Stackhouse and telling him to stay at home for the rest of the season. I think any deal that Portland does make is going to be a 3 team maneuver.
OFFSEASON
I expect another stellar draft for the Blazers to add to the ridiculous depth they already have. After the draft the Blazers should start negotiating extensions with Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge and possibly Sergio Rodriguez.
If LaFrentz is indeed traded, the only expiring players in 2009 are Channing Frye, Ike Diogu and Shavlik Randolph. Frye and Diogu are both restricted free agents so the Blazers can just sit back and wait for another team to make an offer and decide whether or not to match. I would re-sign Frye in a heartbeat. He's a perfect fit in Portland. I also like Diogu's skills and he would make a quality 5th big in Portland's rotation, but I'm not sure if that's the role he wants to play in and beyond his 4th year. Diogu and the Blazers may both be better served if Ike moves on.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Armchair GM part 1 - Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves do have a ton of young talent, but I don't see a lot of young starters here. With that said, I do believe that the beginning of the base is in place. They just need to add or trade for the right pieces to keep progressing.
This team should be planning plus 8 right now:
- 2007-08 - 22 wins
- 2008-09 - 30 wins
- 2009-10 - 38 wins
- 2010-11 - 45 wins and playoffs
Winning 30 games in the 2008-09 season already appears next to impossible. but the Wolves need to show progressive results now to prove that they're actually re-building with a plan. I do think that they need to change GMs to do this. Someone that isn't attached to these players (someone that didn't make the picks) needs to step in and run the franchise like a real business. There have been plenty of gaffs made to justify a changing of the guard. The most recent of which is trading Mario Chalmers for cash. I don't care how much cash we're talking about, they needed a PG and Chalmers should have been picked at or around #20 in the draft. He fell into the Wolves' collective lap and they sold him to the highest bidder. Trading Roy for Foye, picking Craig Smith over Paul Millsap, picking Corey Brewer over Al Thornton, waiving Beno Udrih when it was obvious they needed a pure PG...
I thought that they had some direction going into the summer, then they kept both Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes and picked up Kevin Love to bring the undersized 4 total to 3. Either Smith or Gomes should have been sign and trade material.
CURRENT ROSTER (contract years remaining including 2008-09)
Putting them into their more true positions:
1 - Telfair (2), Ollie (1)
So they're relying on Telfair to improve drastically (which he actually appears to be doing), Foye to play the point with regularity and Kevin Ollie to steady things
Need help at the 1
2 - McCants (1), Foye (2), Brewer (2), Carney (1)
Mike Miller is a little slow for this position so he's coming up next, McCants and Foye are a little small and Brewer needs to hit some jumpers to be viable
I see 4 guys that should come off of the bench here, but I don't see a starter - I think they have to pick one of these guys as a backup and get on with finding a starter, or play 2-3 of them inconsistently dependendent upon matchups. If Foye is a backcourt starter, this is his position. I just don't see the basketball acumen that makes a point guard in this kid. They drafted an undersized 2, and tried to plug him in as the point guard of the future.
Need help at the 2
3 - Miller (2), Gomes(4), Cardinal (2)
Miller is a legit starter, Gomes is the guy off the bench who can play some 4 as well and Cardinal is worthless. Knowing that Carney or Brewer can play some backup minutes at the 3 as well gives them great depth here.
They're fine at the 3
4 - Jefferson (5), Love(2), Smith(2), Madsen (2)
Jefferson is a better player each time I see him. He's picking up some playmaking skills too, Love is already a fairly solid rotation guy and a great rebounder, Smith should be traded to help fill deficiencies and Madsen is an emergency guy that they don't need right now
They're fine at the 4
5 - Collins (1), Booth (1)
Collins is legit (has been a starter ever since I can remember), Booth isn't. Ideally, I don't want Jefferson playing the 5 for more than 15 minutes/game, but I'd be happy with a 4-5 rotation of Collins, Jefferson, Love and Gomes with the minutes like this:
- 5 - 24-Collins (once fully healthy) , 24-Jefferson
- 4 - 12-Jefferson, 25-Love, 11-Gomes
They're OK at the 5 for now
THIS SEASON
I'd move McCants. The fact that Wittman and McCants aren't getting along is painfully obvious to everyone who's seen this team over the last year or two.
The Wolves could probably trade McCants and Utah's pick for Sean Williams (NJN). Williams can play the 4 or the 5, is in year 2 and looked great for stretches as a rookie. Williams has shown great athleticism and seems to have very good timing on the defensive end. The Wolves need an athlete in the front court that can move without the ball on offense, and they sorely need a defensive minded center. I think that Williams can be both those things as he gains experience, and on this young team he should be able to get minutes immediately. The Nets seem to be moving forward with a frontcourt that features Josh Boone, Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez. Williams is the casualty.
Williams would be a work in progress, but if he can gain some valuable experience this year he and Love could easily pick up the frontcourt minutes that Collins will leave behind next season.
NJ can use a shooter in the backcourt and they want a player that can handle the ball for stretches in emergency situations. So McCants can fit that role for them. He's a decent ballhandler that can get the team into a set. Not a great playmaker, but a solid handler and passer.
With that accomplished, I'd wait for the off-season before making any more changes.
OFFSEASON
1. Make the decision on whether to re-sign Carney. As stated before I think that 2 guard is a concern for this team because I don't see a solid starter. The Wolves have the rest of the season to decide whether Carney should be a part of a rotation, and I haven't seen enough of Carney to make a recommendation.
2. Package Cardinal's expiring money along with Smith's potential to try to find a 1 that has some experience, but that isn't fitting well somewhere else, or is getting squeezed out in favor of young talent (Luke Ridnour perhaps? - maybe Earl Watson). Of the 1 and 2, the 1 is a much bigger concern and about $9 million in expiring money headed into the 2010 free agent extravaganza should be desirable enough bait for the Wolves to reel in a quality point guard. They can cull together a group rotation at the 2 using Foye, Brewer or Carney and Miller and be OK. I probably wouldn't panic about the 2, but the 1 is a serious issue.
3. Collins, Ollie, Booth all expire.
That would put the roster at 11 guys (another body would most likely come in with the PG in trade) with somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 rookies coming in next year (Wolves currently have the potential for 4 1st round picks) - one of whom has to be a PG that can fill in during emergencies and will hopefully be a rotation guy in the near future.
4. Finally use a mid-level exception - The Wolves will be hovering around the 2009-10 cap after signing a rookie or two or more. They should use the mid-level to sign a vet for 2 years that can help the youngsters in the frontcourt. Maybe that means re-signing Jason Collins. People keep forgetting that he was a starter for the Nets when they won the East twice.
The team will have to win some games this season and probably make a coaching change if they hope to snag a quality veteran next season. At this point Minnesota is not a desireable place to be. It may be possible to use the full mid-level to find a vet that wants to do some coaching in the near future as long as it's a player that contenders aren't interested in signing. It would be an ideal situation for both the Wolves and the future coach. The Wolves would get a vet that can teach the young players with actions, the vet would get experience with a young roster and more than likely be grossly overpaid for his time.
So yes, I brought up the coaching staff. I actually think that there are very capable assistants on this staff (Pinckney and Sichting), but I have no trust in Randy Wittman as a coach at this level. Coaching young players means putting them into positions where they have their confidence 80-90% of the time so that when you pull them out of their comfort zones for the other 10-20% they still feel confident and focused. Watching Corey Brewer languish wide open on the perimeter for three fourths of last season waiting to catch and shoot from passes out of the double team killed me. Everyone knew that he wasn't going to hit the shots, including Corey Brewer. I kept begging to see him using his athleticism to cut the lane and get those passes on his way to the rim instead. His role in the offense seemed to be set up for him to fail, and I felt for the kid.
From there, the Wolves have a solid foundation for next season. Moving Ryan Gomes may be something to consider since his value is very high right now and trading him may be something that will help the Wolves fill a slot where they're more deficient. The Wolves are also going to have to take a long hard look at Randy Foye. It's his third year and he still looks inconsitent and a little confused on most nights. He has issues being overconfident to a fault at times and then completely lacking confidence 2 games later. He doesn't seem like a player that can help this franchise move forward and I also question his ability to handle the ball and make plays. He can run sets, but when the set play breaks he looks lost and doesn't seem to have a good feel for running the offense. These are the reasons that I categorized him as a 2 guard above. This may be the best time to move Foye since his value is still high. Other teams question the way that he's being used, but not his skills so the Wolves need to figure out how to play him to his greatest strengths, or see if they can turn him into another player.
The biggest need of this team right now a team identity. And I think that will only come along with a culture change in the font office. Until that happens, all the moves in the world won't do this team a lot of good.
I will be doing an assessment of teams with the most cap space going into the bazaar like free agent market of 2010 and the players that I think those teams should target. The Wolves currently top the list of teams with the most cap room that summer, but targets will be few and far between. Minneapolis is a small market, and it's very cold during the season. Both of those things are deterrents to upper tier free agents.
Armchair GM Series
So in this series I will blog on NBA franchises and the moves that I think they should make in order to make progress. I'm looking at where the team is now and where they could/should conceivably be given the parts that they have now.
Given the mess that some of these franchises have created for themselves, this is not an easy task. I'll do my best to outline a path, and a course of action that will improve the team and get them on a track to a better record.
Over the course of the next few weeks I will be blogging every team in the NBA. Starting with my hometown Timberwolves. The Wolves are an easy target, and I love starting easy.
I definitely welcome any replies and comments from other GMs in armchairs out there.
Given the mess that some of these franchises have created for themselves, this is not an easy task. I'll do my best to outline a path, and a course of action that will improve the team and get them on a track to a better record.
Over the course of the next few weeks I will be blogging every team in the NBA. Starting with my hometown Timberwolves. The Wolves are an easy target, and I love starting easy.
I definitely welcome any replies and comments from other GMs in armchairs out there.
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