Armchair GM part 1 - Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves do have a ton of young talent, but I don't see a lot of young starters here. With that said, I do believe that the beginning of the base is in place. They just need to add or trade for the right pieces to keep progressing.

This team should be planning plus 8 right now:

• 2007-08 - 22 wins
• 2008-09 - 30 wins
• 2009-10 - 38 wins
• 2010-11 - 45 wins and playoffs

Winning 30 games in the 2008-09 season already appears next to impossible. but the Wolves need to show progressive results now to prove that they're actually re-building with a plan. I do think that they need to change GMs to do this. Someone that isn't attached to these players (someone that didn't make the picks) needs to step in and run the franchise like a real business. There have been plenty of gaffs made to justify a changing of the guard. The most recent of which is trading Mario Chalmers for cash. I don't care how much cash we're talking about, they needed a PG and Chalmers should have been picked at or around #20 in the draft. He fell into the Wolves' collective lap and they sold him to the highest bidder. Trading Roy for Foye, picking Craig Smith over Paul Millsap, picking Corey Brewer over Al Thornton, waiving Beno Udrih when it was obvious they needed a pure PG...

I thought that they had some direction going into the summer, then they kept both Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes and picked up Kevin Love to bring the undersized 4 total to 3. Either Smith or Gomes should have been sign and trade material.

CURRENT ROSTER (contract years remaining including 2008-09)

Putting them into their more true positions:
1 - Telfair (2), Ollie (1)
So they're relying on Telfair to improve drastically (which he actually appears to be doing), Foye to play the point with regularity and Kevin Ollie to steady things
Need help at the 1

2 - McCants (1), Foye (2), Brewer (2), Carney (1)
Mike Miller is a little slow for this position so he's coming up next, McCants and Foye are a little small and Brewer needs to hit some jumpers to be viable
I see 4 guys that should come off of the bench here, but I don't see a starter - I think they have to pick one of these guys as a backup and get on with finding a starter, or play 2-3 of them inconsistently dependendent upon matchups. If Foye is a backcourt starter, this is his position. I just don't see the basketball acumen that makes a point guard in this kid. They drafted an undersized 2, and tried to plug him in as the point guard of the future.
Need help at the 2

3 - Miller (2), Gomes(4), Cardinal (2)
Miller is a legit starter, Gomes is the guy off the bench who can play some 4 as well and Cardinal is worthless. Knowing that Carney or Brewer can play some backup minutes at the 3 as well gives them great depth here.
They're fine at the 3

4 - Jefferson (5), Love(2), Smith(2), Madsen (2)
Jefferson is a better player each time I see him. He's picking up some playmaking skills too, Love is already a fairly solid rotation guy and a great rebounder, Smith should be traded to help fill deficiencies and Madsen is an emergency guy that they don't need right now
They're fine at the 4

5 - Collins (1), Booth (1)
Collins is legit (has been a starter ever since I can remember), Booth isn't. Ideally, I don't want Jefferson playing the 5 for more than 15 minutes/game, but I'd be happy with a 4-5 rotation of Collins, Jefferson, Love and Gomes with the minutes like this:

• 5 - 24-Collins (once fully healthy) , 24-Jefferson
• 4 - 12-Jefferson, 25-Love, 11-Gomes

They're OK at the 5 for now

THIS SEASON

I'd move McCants. The fact that Wittman and McCants aren't getting along is painfully obvious to everyone who's seen this team over the last year or two.
The Wolves could probably trade McCants and Utah's pick for Sean Williams (NJN). Williams can play the 4 or the 5, is in year 2 and looked great for stretches as a rookie. Williams has shown great athleticism and seems to have very good timing on the defensive end. The Wolves need an athlete in the front court that can move without the ball on offense, and they sorely need a defensive minded center. I think that Williams can be both those things as he gains experience, and on this young team he should be able to get minutes immediately. The Nets seem to be moving forward with a frontcourt that features Josh Boone, Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez. Williams is the casualty.
Williams would be a work in progress, but if he can gain some valuable experience this year he and Love could easily pick up the frontcourt minutes that Collins will leave behind next season.
NJ can use a shooter in the backcourt and they want a player that can handle the ball for stretches in emergency situations. So McCants can fit that role for them. He's a decent ballhandler that can get the team into a set. Not a great playmaker, but a solid handler and passer.

With that accomplished, I'd wait for the off-season before making any more changes.

OFFSEASON

1. Make the decision on whether to re-sign Carney. As stated before I think that 2 guard is a concern for this team because I don't see a solid starter. The Wolves have the rest of the season to decide whether Carney should be a part of a rotation, and I haven't seen enough of Carney to make a recommendation.

2. Package Cardinal's expiring money along with Smith's potential to try to find a 1 that has some experience, but that isn't fitting well somewhere else, or is getting squeezed out in favor of young talent (Luke Ridnour perhaps? - maybe Earl Watson). Of the 1 and 2, the 1 is a much bigger concern and about $9 million in expiring money headed into the 2010 free agent extravaganza should be desirable enough bait for the Wolves to reel in a quality point guard. They can cull together a group rotation at the 2 using Foye, Brewer or Carney and Miller and be OK. I probably wouldn't panic about the 2, but the 1 is a serious issue.

3. Collins, Ollie, Booth all expire.

That would put the roster at 11 guys (another body would most likely come in with the PG in trade) with somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 rookies coming in next year (Wolves currently have the potential for 4 1st round picks) - one of whom has to be a PG that can fill in during emergencies and will hopefully be a rotation guy in the near future.

4. Finally use a mid-level exception - The Wolves will be hovering around the 2009-10 cap after signing a rookie or two or more. They should use the mid-level to sign a vet for 2 years that can help the youngsters in the frontcourt. Maybe that means re-signing Jason Collins. People keep forgetting that he was a starter for the Nets when they won the East twice.
The team will have to win some games this season and probably make a coaching change if they hope to snag a quality veteran next season. At this point Minnesota is not a desireable place to be. It may be possible to use the full mid-level to find a vet that wants to do some coaching in the near future as long as it's a player that contenders aren't interested in signing. It would be an ideal situation for both the Wolves and the future coach. The Wolves would get a vet that can teach the young players with actions, the vet would get experience with a young roster and more than likely be grossly overpaid for his time.

So yes, I brought up the coaching staff. I actually think that there are very capable assistants on this staff (Pinckney and Sichting), but I have no trust in Randy Wittman as a coach at this level. Coaching young players means putting them into positions where they have their confidence 80-90% of the time so that when you pull them out of their comfort zones for the other 10-20% they still feel confident and focused. Watching Corey Brewer languish wide open on the perimeter for three fourths of last season waiting to catch and shoot from passes out of the double team killed me. Everyone knew that he wasn't going to hit the shots, including Corey Brewer. I kept begging to see him using his athleticism to cut the lane and get those passes on his way to the rim instead. His role in the offense seemed to be set up for him to fail, and I felt for the kid.

From there, the Wolves have a solid foundation for next season. Moving Ryan Gomes may be something to consider since his value is very high right now and trading him may be something that will help the Wolves fill a slot where they're more deficient. The Wolves are also going to have to take a long hard look at Randy Foye. It's his third year and he still looks inconsitent and a little confused on most nights. He has issues being overconfident to a fault at times and then completely lacking confidence 2 games later. He doesn't seem like a player that can help this franchise move forward and I also question his ability to handle the ball and make plays. He can run sets, but when the set play breaks he looks lost and doesn't seem to have a good feel for running the offense. These are the reasons that I categorized him as a 2 guard above. This may be the best time to move Foye since his value is still high. Other teams question the way that he's being used, but not his skills so the Wolves need to figure out how to play him to his greatest strengths, or see if they can turn him into another player.

The biggest need of this team right now a team identity. And I think that will only come along with a culture change in the font office. Until that happens, all the moves in the world won't do this team a lot of good.

I will be doing an assessment of teams with the most cap space going into the bazaar like free agent market of 2010 and the players that I think those teams should target. The Wolves currently top the list of teams with the most cap room that summer, but targets will be few and far between. Minneapolis is a small market, and it's very cold during the season. Both of those things are deterrents to upper tier free agents.