Armchair GM part 2 - Portland Trailblazers

My first thought on this one is simply, don't mess with perfection. This Blazer team is outstanding. They're full of young talent at every position; they have great coaches and a huge chunk of expiring cash coming up just in time to re-sign a couple key guys. But this blog is all about improving the team, so let's take a good look at where the Blazers can step it up.
The Blazers current 2008-09 track is to make the playoffs (by the way, they're on pace for homecourt in the 1st round). I say, let's go one better with that goal and win at least a round in the playoffs. Winning a playoff series this season would make this team ridiculously dangerous next season. These kids need that taste of winning to be hungrier next year. It will also help them realize that staying together could drastically increase their chances for success. I'm going to try to figure out the piece that will help them win in the playoffs now.

Current Roster (contract years remaining including 2008-09)

1 - Steve Blake (2), Sergio Rodriguez (2), Jerryd Bayless (4)

There were a lot of critics when the Blazers signed Blake (again), but he's proving to everyone that a point guard that looks to distribute the ball and take shots only when he's open is a luxury. I love Blake's handle, being able to control the dribble the way that he can gets him anywhere on the floor and his head is always up so he often confuses the defenses of opposing teams. They just don't know when he's going to mark the play and where the ball may go. Once you get past Blake things get a little shakier.
Sergio Rodriguez is becoming more Blake-like this year. We used to see Rodriguez always going as fast as possible, with or without the ball, now he seems more in control and a better and more willing distributor. I still think that Rodriguez as a starter is one or two years away.
Jerryd Bayless is waiting for an injury to happen to show everyone what he can do. I worry for this offense if Bayless gets big minutes though, they've predicated everything they do on great ball movement from the point and Bayless hasn't ever seemed all that interested in moving the ball.
Brandon Roy is an option for limited minutes at the point as well.

They're fine at the 1

2 - Brandon Roy (2), Rudy Fernandez (4), Martell Webster (5)

How great is Kevin Pritchard in the draft? In a single draft he fleeces the Wolves for Brandon Roy, the Bulls for LaMarcus Aldridge and takes on Sergio Rodriguez from Phoenix since Phoenix was so averse to spending money on young talent (just wait for the Phoenix article). Then the next year he dials Phoenix again and gets Rudy Fernandez out of it. Magnificent work.

Roy is an All Star again, Fernandez is adapting his game to the NBA more rapidly than I thought he could (he's one of those international "veteran rookies") and Martell Webster would be in the rotation for most teams, but will have trouble getting time here when he's ready to come back from his foot injury.

They're fine at the 2

3 - Nicolas Batum (4), Travis Outlaw (2)

The team is starting rookie Nicolas Batum and reaping benefits from his defensive mindset already. He looks a little herky jerky on the offensive end at times, but he's learning on the fly. His international experience is a positive for this team and he can rest on his defensive laurels until his offense comes around.
Splitting minutes with Batum is Travis Outlaw. I've been an Outlaw fan for a while now. His maturation has taken a little longer than expected, but he's still only 24 and shows a ton of promise as a mid range shooter, scorer and defender. By the time his contract is up we'll know whether or not he's the real deal, or just a backup.
In addition to these two Martell Webster and Brandon Roy are options.

They're fine at the 3

4 - LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Channing Frye (1), Ike Diogu (1), Shavlik Randolph (1)

Again, how fantastic does the 2006 draft look for Portland? They traded Tyrus Thomas for LaMarcus Aldridge and Randy Foye for Brandon Roy. It's ridiculous. Aldridge is already legit as a scorer and defensively he can tangle with the better power forwards in the league. His inside scoring is strong enough and he's quick to take advantage of mismatches, size-wise or quickness-wise. He also has a jumper like Kevin Garnett's, which will be even more helpful as Greg Oden matures into a stronger option in the post.
Channing Frye is exactly where he should be, backing up a big forward with similar skills. I like Frye as a 3rd or 4th big depending on the opponent and the schedule situation.
Diogu has skills on the offensive end, but the guys in front of him are just too good. He'll expire at the end of the season and I do hope that he'll find a good home somewhere.
The team nabbed Randolph because well... because no one else did. I personally don't think that he's a pro player. It seems that Portland's coaches are under that impression as well.

They're fine at the 4

5 - Greg Oden (3), Joel Przybilla (3), Raef LaFrentz (1)

Greg Oden is much better than I thought he would be after 20 games. I thought he needed another year in college to get better defensive footwork (the key to avoiding fouls in the NBA), but I'm guessing that when he sat out a season after knee surgery and couldn't jump and run, a lot of his training was focused on that same defensive footwork. He already has nice timing for shotblocking, and has shown that he's smart enough to establish rebounding position early (in college you establish as the shot is in its downward arc, in the pros you need to establish once the shot goes up) and in general looks like a rookie with multiple years of college polish. He's occasionally a little prone to fouls, but that will improve.
For as terrible as Joel Przybilla looked in his first 2 years in the league, he's really stepped up his defensive game and made a place for himself on this team. LaFrentz will expire to the tune of about $13 million at the end of this season and will not play this year.

They're fine at the 5

THIS SEASON

The thing that I love about this team is that their starters all have great skills, are young and you have 2 guys that love to close games (when most teams have zero). Roy and Aldridge are quickly turning into legitimate closers, although Roy is much better at it. The backups are less polished (Rodriguez compared to Blake, Fernandez compared to Roy) or less athletic (Frye compared to Aldridge, Przybilla compared to Oden) versions of their starting counterparts. A number of these guys can play multiple positions, and the 1st and 2nd unit players are interchangeable in case of injury.

The only thing that the Blazers are lacking is a veteran that has won in the playoffs before (one that plays, LaFrentz doesn't count). The Blazers will be great this season (I pegged them to win 50 games), but their playoff lives may depend on adding the one veteran that can steady the ship on the court and help coach McMillan keep big game emotions in check. The Blazers should really have no issue acquiring such a player given that they have so much young talent, some of which is sitting on expiring contracts (so teams could take a 1/2 season test drive so to speak). If the trade bait is Ike Diogu and either Outlaw or Webster, the total to spend in trade is $6.5-$7 million. The more serious they get about adding a veteran, the more likely that they'll throw in Sergio Rodriguez and/or Raef LaFrentz's expiring money. Coming into the season my half baked idea was to offer up a package with Diogu, Webster and Rodriguez to Detroit for Chauncey Billups, it would have been a starting point to let Detroit know the Blazers were serious. Since Billups was traded, I've not really bothered to think more about it or develop a theory as to how Detroit may have countered. Beyond Billups, I think that the Blazers can look to this option:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2006~802~454~2015~1717&teams=22~18~6~6~22&te=&cash=
The Knicks get Jerry Stackhouse, a 2 guard with a contract that expires in 2010. They also move Jared Jeffries's contract (which expires in 2011, or one year too late).
Portland gets Josh Howard to solidify their perimeter defense and bring them a playoff seasoned vet. The only young asset they have to move is Outlaw, whom Batum and Webster make movable. They bring back Jared Jeffries, who they may be able to flip in the coming summer, but he's a nice player and could give them some great minutes if needed.
Dallas gets a huge chunk of expiring money, and a young capable 3. They also get to move the guy that has been bringing them so much bad press for a younger and much cheaper player that can slide right into the starting 3 slot.

It's a decent deal from all sides. Maybe Portland would be willing to just make the deal with Dallas, taking back Stackhouse and telling him to stay at home for the rest of the season. I think any deal that Portland does make is going to be a 3 team maneuver.

OFFSEASON

I expect another stellar draft for the Blazers to add to the ridiculous depth they already have. After the draft the Blazers should start negotiating extensions with Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge and possibly Sergio Rodriguez.
If LaFrentz is indeed traded, the only expiring players in 2009 are Channing Frye, Ike Diogu and Shavlik Randolph. Frye and Diogu are both restricted free agents so the Blazers can just sit back and wait for another team to make an offer and decide whether or not to match. I would re-sign Frye in a heartbeat. He's a perfect fit in Portland. I also like Diogu's skills and he would make a quality 5th big in Portland's rotation, but I'm not sure if that's the role he wants to play in and beyond his 4th year. Diogu and the Blazers may both be better served if Ike moves on.